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One of the most important tasks to be solved in the context of the Integrated power systems (IPS) development is to ensure balance reliability. Its successful solution is possible only if the electricity market is financially balanced the sufficiency of the revenues of energy companies for running a business of electricity production and providing auxiliary services, as well as providing an opportunity for investors to justify the feasibility of implementing projects for the development of generation and the implementation of demand-driven management measures to ensure the IPS balance reliability. When the IPS works according to the rules of the liberalized electricity market, it is impossible to guarantee the owners of generating companies and demand-driven management systems a profit at the level at which they will consider their work on this market expedient in the absence of special mechanisms for providing relevant guarantees, for example, a "green" tariff for power plants on renewable energy sources. Сertainly, without the presence of such mechanisms, it is impossible to justify the feasibility of implementing investment projects for the development of generating capacities and the implementation of measures for managed demand management. This creates significant risks in terms of ensuring balance reliability requirements in the IPS, whose activity is regulated according to the rules of the liberalized electricity market, in the long term due to the possibility the occurrence of a general deficit of generation capacity or insufficient maneuverability of the IPS. The emergence of a deficit will be due to the lack of interest on the part of the owners of generating companies and demand-driven management systems in maintaining the generating units and corresponding systems in an affordable state, which do not bring sufficient profit, as well as due to the lack of investment in the construction of new capacities. Taking into account the above, the purpose of the performed studies, the main results of which are given in the article, was the scientific justification of the need to introduce capacity payment as a key prerequisite for ensuring the IPS balance reliability based on the analysis of their objective properties and features of the functioning of liberalized electricity markets, as well as the appropriate mechanisms for its implementation. Keywords: power system, electric power generation, electricity market, capacity payment, power system balancing reliability

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One of the important tasks in the short-term forecasting of the work of the united energy system (UES) of Ukraine is to ensure grid balance reliability, one of the key elements of which is the reliability of fuel supply. Today in Ukraine to solve this task the forecast of the electricity balance (FBE) is developed, within which balance of fuel for TPPs is formed, but the methodology of its development has certain shortcomings which are analyzed in article. The article proposes an approach to improving the development of FBE by the introduction into practice a specialized optimization mathematical model to calculate the required total change in fuel stocks at TPP. The developed mathematical model takes into account the modes of TPPs operation, requirements for limiting emissions to the air according to National Emission Reduction Plan, restrictions on the possibility of fuel supply. The article provides a detailed description of the developed mathematical model, and also presents the results of test calculations and comparison with the official data of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine on the need for total fuel reserves for TPPs. The results show: 1. It is expedient that the methodology of FBE formation should be improved taking into account a number of factors, in particular, to take into account the restrictions on air pollutant emissions volumes while determining electricity generation capacity at different groups of power units, the opportunities for general fuel supply for all TPPs, more reliable forecast of electricity production at individual TPPs provided by FBE than according to retrospective data. Improving the methodology of FBE formation can be based on the developed mathematical model of optimal monthly national electricity balances calculation which operates with separate groups of TPP power units with similar technical and economic parameters. 2. Comparisons of the obtained results with the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine’s actual forecasted data about accumulation of fuel stock indicated significant difference. The latest forecast is unrealistic in terms of its feasibility - the need to ensure a sharp increase in fuel stocks in the short term against the background of growing electricity production at TPPs, while the previous forecast had an underestimation of the need for fuel reserves. 3. The results of calculations for FBE 2021 showed that the accumulation of fuel reserves should be carried out in April - June. 4. The introduction of the proposed mathematical model will ensure taking into account the number of important factors in the context of providing TPPs with fuel, which are not taken into account by the existing Procedure for its development. This will increase the reliability of electricity supply to consumers by minimizing the risks of lack of necessary fuel stocks at TPPs. Keywords: electric power system, thermal power plants, fuel balance, forecast electricity balance, fuel reserves

Ukraine is obligated to adopt Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement (NDC2) in 2021 for a period up to 2030 as a percent of 1990, requiring correct projection of green-houses gases (GHG) emissions first of all in key categories, one of that is heat and electricity production by thermal power plants (TPP) and combined heat and electricity production (CHP) which are burning organic fuel. The Ministry of environment protection and natural resources of Ukraine (MEP) proposed GHG reduction of 65% compared to 1990 which is about 3.2% lower compared to 2018, and there is a very ambitious goal taking into account desired rapid Ukrainian economic growth. To assess the reliability of this proposal the appropriate modeling GHG emission reduction from TPP and CHP was made and presented in the article. The modelling was made taking into account methodological approaches of TIMES-Ukraine modeling system, which is the basic tool for assessment of GHG reduction potential in Ukraine for MEP, and also alternative one used in BACS-RVE modeling tool, which was used for calculations for "Generation Adequacy report" which was developed by Ukrainian transmission system operator "Ukrenergo". The analysis of the modeling results showed that neglecting in the methodology used in TIMES-Ukraine the operation modes of generation and required levels of power grid balance reliability indicators does not allow fully adequately project power system development. The modeling results using BACS-RVE modeling tool showed that the reference case scenario of generation development (according to the TIMES-Ukraine) could be feasible under the condition that GHG emission tax should not be less than 100 EUR per tonne of CO2eqv, and potentially will cause the increase of electricity price. Another important result obtained using BACS-RVE is that GHG emission level for 2030 is higher compared to the reference case scenario, hence additional modeling and discussion of results are required to ensure well-grounded GHG emission projection which will allow reviewing NDC obligation for the power sector of Ukraine. Keywords: power system, greenhouse gases, modeling, load profiles, grid balance reliability