The moderating effect of solar radiation on the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infection in Europe

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global pandemic. Some studies have suggested a negative association between sunlight intensity and COVID-19 infection, alluding to the belief that it might be safe to go out on sunny days. This paper examined whether solar radiation mitigated the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infection in Europe using a dynamic panel data model to investigate the effect of human mobility, solar radiation, and their interaction on COVID-19 infection. The results revealed that outgoing mobility was positively correlated and solar radiation was negatively correlated with COVID-19 infection at lag levels of 1, 2, and 3 weeks. The coefficients of the interaction items indicated that solar radiation negatively moderated the relationship between outgoing mobility and the number of daily new confirmed cases at 2- and 3-week lag levels. However, the moderating effect was limited and unable to eliminate the positive effect of outgoing mobility on COVID-19 infection. Thus, these results suggested that solar radiation only weakly mitigated the relationship between human mobility and COVID-19 infection, providing policy implications that mobility should still be restricted on sunny days during the COVID-19 pandemic. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-15738-w.

Time series cross-correlation between home range and number of infected people during the medium-term of the COVID-19 pandemic in a suburban city

“…This study clarifies a slight positive correlation between home range and the number of infected people after one week during the medium-term of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ibaraki City. The positive correlations validated the results of previous studies [18,19]. In addition, prior research that analyzed the short-term period clarified a strong correlation [17,20].…”

“…In addition, based on mobile phone data from March 1 to June 9, 2020, a positive correlation was found between the number of infected people and mobility inflow at the country level in the United States [18]. Further, in the European context, the spread of COVID-19 was positively correlated with the number of people staying in each area and with human mobility between March 1 to June 6, 2020, at lag levels of one, two, and three weeks [19]. This could be attributed to the fact that in Europe, lockdowns generally affect long-distance travel behavior [19].…”

“…Further, in the European context, the spread of COVID-19 was positively correlated with the number of people staying in each area and with human mobility between March 1 to June 6, 2020, at lag levels of one, two, and three weeks [19]. This could be attributed to the fact that in Europe, lockdowns generally affect long-distance travel behavior [19]. In addition, between January 1 and April 15, 2020, it was found that the estimated adequate reproduction number of COVID-19 correlated strongly with human mobility (or social contact) in Tokyo, Japan [20].…”

Time series cross-correlation between home range and number of infected people during the COVID-19 pandemic in a suburban city

“…In Indonesia, human mobility is also correlated with COVID-19 cases with lags of 7–14 days and a correlation coefficient of about 0.50 from March 1 to July 31, 2020 [ 27 ]. In the European context, the spread of COVID-19 was positively correlated with the number of people staying in each area and with human mobility between March 1 to June 6, 2020, at lag levels of one, two, and three weeks [ 28 ]. This could be attributed to the fact that in Europe, lockdowns generally affect long-distance travel behavior [ 28 ].…”

“…In the European context, the spread of COVID-19 was positively correlated with the number of people staying in each area and with human mobility between March 1 to June 6, 2020, at lag levels of one, two, and three weeks [ 28 ]. This could be attributed to the fact that in Europe, lockdowns generally affect long-distance travel behavior [ 28 ]. In addition, between January 1 and April 15, 2020, it was found that the estimated adequate reproduction number of COVID-19 correlated strongly with human mobility (or social contact) in Tokyo, Japan [ 29 ].…”