The Monte Carlo Method, an Introduction

Reiter, D.

doi:10.1007/978-3-540-74686-7_3

Cited by 10 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…He also calculated the probability, which he defined by the relation (6). His calculation was later on used by Laplace, who derived the relation for the "π" calculation in 1886 [47,49].…”

Section: Monte Carlo Simulation Using Crystal Ball Software Toolmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model for Sustainable Financial Planning and Investment Financing Using Monte Carlo Method

2022

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The article deals with current issues of finance and investment planning with a selective focus on financial decision-making processes using sophisticated software tools. The article has a special significance in this period when it is necessary to re-evaluate and consider ways of appropriate and effective investment and financial policy in view of the restrictions in enterprises in Slovakia, which brings with it the global pandemic COVID-19 or another crisis in enterprises. The aim of the article is to propose a methodology as a tool for streamlining the investment activities of companies. The proposed methodology combines the usability of traditional and modern economic methods, making it an important tool for the sustainability and competitiveness of enterprises. Three variants of investment decisions in the enterprise were simulated using simulation in terms of two approaches. The first approach focuses on mathematical–economic calculations of deterministic modeling through traditional software tools. The second stochastic modeling uses the simulation of financial risks using a modern software tool using the Monte Carlo method. The output is the creation of a graphical management model in the form of an algorithm.

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“…He also calculated the probability, which he defined by the relation (6). His calculation was later on used by Laplace, who derived the relation for the "π" calculation in 1886 [47,49].…”

Section: Monte Carlo Simulation Using Crystal Ball Software Toolmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model for Sustainable Financial Planning and Investment Financing Using Monte Carlo Method

2022

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“…The Theorem of Large Numbers and Central Limits in Probability Theory are the theoretical basis of the MCM [25]. The principle of the Monte Carlo simulation method is that when the problem or the object itself has a probability feature, a sampling result can be generated by a computer simulation method.…”

Section: The Principle Of the MCMmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty Analysis of Weather Forecast Data for Cooling Load Forecasting Based on the Monte Carlo Method

2018

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Abstract:Recently, the cooling load forecasting for the short-term has received increasing attention in the field of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), which is conducive to the HVAC system operation control. The load forecasting based on weather forecast data is an effective approach. The meteorological parameters are used as the key inputs of the prediction model, of which the accuracy has a great influence on the prediction loads. Obviously, there are errors between the weather forecast data and the actual weather data, but most of the existing studies ignored this issue. In order to deal with the uncertainty of weather forecast data scientifically, this paper proposes an effective approach based on the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) to process weather forecast data by using the 24-h-ahead Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for load prediction as an example. The data-preprocessing method based on MCM makes the forecasting results closer to the actual load than those without process, which reduces the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of load prediction from 11.54% to 10.92%. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, it was found that among the selected weather parameters, the factor that had the greatest impact on the prediction results was the 1-h-ahead temperature T(h-1) at the prediction moment.

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New Research Methodology to Analyze Time Series and Correlations’ Reliability

Pödör

Bencsik

2023

Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems

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The Monte Carlo Method, an Introduction

Cited by 10 publications

References 6 publications

Model for Sustainable Financial Planning and Investment Financing Using Monte Carlo Method

Model for Sustainable Financial Planning and Investment Financing Using Monte Carlo Method

Uncertainty Analysis of Weather Forecast Data for Cooling Load Forecasting Based on the Monte Carlo Method

New Research Methodology to Analyze Time Series and Correlations’ Reliability

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