The Need for Hierarchies of Acceptance Criteria for Probabilistic Risk Assessments in Fire Engineering

Coile, Ruben Van; Hopkin, Danny; Lange, David; Jomaas, Grunde; Bisby, Luke

doi:10.1007/s10694-018-0746-7

Cited by 69 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…An alternative approach may be to demonstrate that risks have been reduced So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable (SFAIRP) [28,29]. The methods used in this paper may be suitable to compare the risks from several trial concept designs however a separate framework may be required if risks are required to be reduced SFAIRP [30].…”

Section: Methodology Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Life Safety for a Six-Storey Commercial Building with an Open Stair Interconnecting Four Storeys: A Case Study

Sabapathy¹,

Depetro²,

Moinuddin

2019

Fire Technol

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The gold standard for complying Performance Requirements is based on a Quantitative Probabilistic Risk Assessment (QPRA) method. This case study demonstrates the application of this approach to performance based design of a six-storey commercial building with an open stair interconnecting four storeys. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based and zone fire as well as evacuation simulations are used to quantify consequences whilst detailed event trees underpinned by statistical data and analysis are utilised to calculate corresponding probabilities. Results are combined in a trade-off analysis tool which calculates the Expected Risk to Life (ERL) based on the trial design features included in each design option. The approach was used to determine a preferred design that achieves an acceptably low ERL and compliance with the Performance Requirements of the Building Code of Australia (BCA). The benchmark ERL was set as 1.36 deaths/1000 fires or a probability of death from a fire of 1.36 x 10-3 based on local statistical data. To obtain an optimum fire safety design (Alternative Solution) a layered approach was adopted in which fire safety systems were added until the risk to occupants in the building due to a fire is the same or less than the benchmark ERL. Eventually three sets of trial design were considered and in all cases the calculated ERL were roughly 22% lower than the benchmark. Eventually the trial design with the least number of fire safety systems were recommended as the Alternative Solution. The trade-off analysis shows the sprinklers and wallwetting sprinklers in the office area resulted in a 20-fold difference in the building wide ERL, each. Schematic Design Fire Specification Event Tree Development Preliminary Risk Assessment and Scenario Generation Data Collection/Analysis Collect and analyse relevant data Determine credible fire scenarios (causes, locations, etc.) Conduct preliminary, qualitative risk analysis Complete risk ranking and short list design fire scenarios Identify all possible statuses of fire safety subsystems Construct event tree and generate possible outcomes Calculate probabilities using relevant data

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Section: Methodology Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Life Safety for a Six-Storey Commercial Building with an Open Stair Interconnecting Four Storeys: A Case Study

Sabapathy¹,

Depetro²,

Moinuddin

2019

Fire Technol

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“…From this it was determined, using estimated lognormal distribution parameters, that dwelling fires had a mean fire growth rate of 0.0060 kW/s 2 [21] determined a residential growth rate distribution using the zone modelling software B-RISK. A residential occupancy based on experiments undertaken in Sweden was modelled using probabilistic inputs for the 'design fire generator' (DFG) and by applying the Monte Carlo method.…”

Section: Fire Growth Ratementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This means that the level of safety achieved is not quantifiable, i.e. it is without a quantitative safety target, and that the demonstration of an adequate level of safety can differ between designers within the same jurisdiction [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design Fire Characteristics for Probabilistic Assessments of Dwellings in England

Hopkin

Spearpoint²,

Wang

et al. 2019

Fire Technol

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In England, there are no fixed requirements on the parameters adopted when considering residential design fires, and analyses undertaken are often deterministic with limited consideration given to probabilistic assessments and the sensitivity of parameters. The Home Office dwelling fires dataset has been analysed, considering the fire damage area and the time from ignition to fire and rescue service arrival. From this, lognormal distributions for the maximum heat release rate (HRR) and fire growth rate of residential fires have been approximated. The mean maximum HRR ranges from 900 kW to 1900 kW, with a standard deviation ranging from 2000 kW to 3700 kW, depending on property type and room of fire origin. The mean growth rate, assuming a t 2 relationship, ranges from 0.0022 kW/s 2 to 0.0034 kW/s 2 , with a standard deviation ranging from 0.0071 kW/s 2 to 0.0132 kW/s 2. When considering incidents which result in immediate fire and rescue service call out following ignition, the mean growth rate increases to a range of 0.0058 kW/s 2 to 0.0088 kW/s 2. As a result of the analyses, design fire distributions are provided which can be adopted for probabilistic assessments. For deterministic analyses, it is proposed that an approximate 95th percentile fire may be adopted, aligning with a medium growth rate of 0.0117 kW/s 2 and a maximum fuel-limited HRR in the region of 3800 kW to 4400 kW, depending on whether the dwelling is a house or an apartment. A 95th percentile design fire broadly aligns with values already specified in guidance, helping to substantiate the existing recommendations.

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“…comparable with its total assets), the valuation for M R will be higher as the acceptability of high consequences is, in relative terms, lower than more frequent low consequence events. As noted above, here M R = 1 considering societal decision-making where the tolerability of consequences is explicitly confirmed prior to the ALARP assessment, and where no qualitative distinction is made between tolerable consequences in function of their magnitude, see [27]. This leads to…”

Section: Lqi and J-valuementioning

confidence: 99%

The J-Value and Its Role in Evaluating Investments in Fire Safety Schemes

2018

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Fire safety engineers endeavour to ensure that a design achieves an adequate level of fire safety. For uncommon buildings, adequate safety cannot be based on precedent and an explicit evaluation of the adequacy of proposed safety features may be required. Commonly, this requires demonstration that the residual risk associated with the design is as low as is reasonably practicable. In those situations, a measure for a safety scheme's benefit relative to its cost is required, as more efficient safety schemes should be preferred over less efficient ones to maximize the number of lives saved under societal resource constraints. To this end, the J-value has been introduced in other engineering fields as a decision support indicator for assessing the efficacy of safety features. The J-value has been derived from societal welfare considerations (the Life Quality Index) and is adopted in the current paper for applications in fire safety engineering. It is demonstrated herein how the J-value can inform decisions on fire safety, and how it can provide a basis for assessing whether or not a proposed fire safety scheme should be implemented. Future work will focus on its implementation as a tool for assessing the benefit of real life fire safety scheme implementations, such as sprinkler installations.

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The Need for Hierarchies of Acceptance Criteria for Probabilistic Risk Assessments in Fire Engineering

Abstract: The need for hierarchies of acceptance criteria for probabilistic risk assessments in fire engineering. Fire Technology.

Cited by 69 publications

References 34 publications

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Life Safety for a Six-Storey Commercial Building with an Open Stair Interconnecting Four Storeys: A Case Study

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Life Safety for a Six-Storey Commercial Building with an Open Stair Interconnecting Four Storeys: A Case Study

Design Fire Characteristics for Probabilistic Assessments of Dwellings in England

The J-Value and Its Role in Evaluating Investments in Fire Safety Schemes

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