The New Blue: Northern In-Migration in Southern Presidential Elections

McKee, Seth C.; Teigen, Jeremy M.

doi:10.1017/s1049096516000081

Cited by 11 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Unfortunately, we are unable to use length of residence in our analysis because the ANES measure is evaluated at the community level, which is problematic because most changes in residence are made within a state. Nevertheless, where a respondent grew up is a reliable proxy for evaluating differences in one's attachment to a region and it has figured prominently in past and present research on southern politics (see Black and Black ; McKee and Teigen ).…”

Section: Data and Methods For Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As the South morphed into a Republican bastion, other sections of the United States, like the Northeast in particular, have become decidedly more Democratic (Reiter and Stonecash ). Indeed, except for the interior West and Great Plains states (Black and Black ), where relatively fewer migrants to the South come from (see McKee and Teigen ), the northern United States is not nearly as red as the South. This simple observation on the contemporary state of partisan strength in and outside the South leads to the expectation that new arrivals to the South should be more Democratic than the native population.…”

Section: Migration and Political Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, Frey () argues that the influx of young, black professional migrants is likely to reduce the Republican domination of states like Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. In presidential politics, Obama carried Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia in 2008 and Florida and Virginia again in 2012—southern states that have some of the highest percentages of in‐migrants from the Northeast—the bluest section of the country (McKee ; McKee and Teigen ). Hood, Kidd, and Morris (, 384) contend that “the influx of non‐Southerners into the region, especially the rim South, may be indicative of a long‐term pattern benefiting the Democratic Party.”…”

Section: Migration and Political Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

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Polls and Elections Reversal of Fortune: The Political Behavior of White Migrants to the South

Hillygus¹,

McKee²,

Young³

2017

Pres Stud Q

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What are the political implications of domestic migration to the American South? Using the American National Election Studies, we track the changing dynamic of party identification and presidential voting among white southern in‐migrants and natives. Although it was once thought southern in‐migration from the rest of the country contributed to Republican ascendancy in the region, we find that is no longer true. In the 1970s and 1980s, white migrants to the South were more Republican than natives. Today, white southern in‐migrants are more likely to affiliate with the Democratic Party and vote Democratic, suggesting population change could ultimately shift the partisan balance in the region.

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Section: Data and Methods For Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Migration and Political Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Migration and Political Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

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Polls and Elections Reversal of Fortune: The Political Behavior of White Migrants to the South

Hillygus¹,

McKee²,

Young³

2017

Pres Stud Q

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“…Statewide, over the same period of time (1990–2016), Georgia's black population went from 27 to 31 percent (third highest in the South) and Latinos increased from 2 to 9 percent (third highest in the South), whereas the non‐Hispanic white population dropped from 71 to 60 percent. The share of Georgia natives declined from 64 to 55 percent, the percent urban increased from 63 to 75 percent (2010 census: fourth highest in the South), and based on 2012 (ACS) data, 30 percent of northern in‐migrants came from the “deep blue” Northeast (fifth highest in the South; see McKee and Teigen, :229). Based on these metrics, Georgia is looking less Deep South and more Rim South (McKee and Springer, ) and the currently dominant Georgia GOP has a big problem on its hands.…”

Section: The New Millennium and The Republican Push For Restrictive Vmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why Georgia, Why? Peach State Residents’ Perceptions of Voting‐Related Improprieties and Their Impact on the 2018 Gubernatorial Election

Hood¹,

McKee

2019

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective In the historic 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election, which for the first time featured a black Democratic woman against a white Republican man, we assess opinions toward voting‐related concerns and their impact on voters’ preferences. Methods We surveyed political behavior with a representative sample of likely Georgia voters to gauge their perceptions of voting‐related improprieties and their possible effect on vote choice. Results Our analysis makes it clear that not only did voters divide over election‐related concerns, which dominated the narrative of the gubernatorial contest, but opinions on this matter strongly influenced the choice for governor. Conclusions Reflecting a national development, but amplified in Georgia because demographic changes and growing minority participation are increasing competition, election administration has become highly politicized and it was the focal point of the 2018 gubernatorial campaign and the principal short‐term factor shaping mass voting behavior.

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“…Despite evidence that interstate migration in the United States affects the political context of destination states, particularly in the South (Bass and De Vries 1995; Frendreis 1989; Frey 2015; Hood and McKee 2010; Lublin 2004; McKee and Teigen 2016; Parker 1988; Scher 1997; Wolfinger and Hagen 1985), and considerable attention to the political effects of the recent dispersion of Latino migrants across the United States (cf. Frey 2015; Hatalsky and Kessler 2017; Massey 2008; Sanchez 2015), the limited amount of individual-level data on Latino migrants and their political preferences limits our understanding of the implications for Latino interstate migration.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Pack Your Politics! Assessing the Vote Choice of Latino Interstate Migrants

Preuhs

2019

J. Race Ethnicity Politics

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While popular narratives regarding the destiny of demographics assume Latino interstate migrants will alter destination state politics as Latinos disperse across the states, no studies directly assess the empirical validity of the underlying assumption of migrant's political preferences. Moreover, established theories of domestic migrant preferences suggest a variety of potential individual-level behaviors that often diverge from the underlying assumption of a uniform introduction of more liberal voters. Employing data from the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey, this study presents an analysis on Latino interstate migrant voting behavior, while also overcoming a variety of data limitations in existing studies. Countering some previous findings that homophily, adaptation, or even a static liberal orientation describes migrant voting behavior, the results suggest that Latino interstate migrant preferences vary by the political context of their previous state of residence. The results imply that the destiny of demographics will be conditioned, to some extent, by the migratory patterns of Latinos and the dyad of departure and destination states. When Latinos leave liberal (conservative) states, they bring more liberal (conservative) policies. In short, Latinos seem to pack their politics when moving across state lines.

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The New Blue: Northern In-Migration in Southern Presidential Elections

Cited by 11 publications

References 9 publications

Polls and Elections Reversal of Fortune: The Political Behavior of White Migrants to the South

Polls and Elections Reversal of Fortune: The Political Behavior of White Migrants to the South

Why Georgia, Why? Peach State Residents’ Perceptions of Voting‐Related Improprieties and Their Impact on the 2018 Gubernatorial Election

Pack Your Politics! Assessing the Vote Choice of Latino Interstate Migrants

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