The nonlinear feedback dynamics of asymmetric political polarization

Abstract

Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it.

Inequality, Identity, and Partisanship: How redistribution can stem the tide of mass polarization

“…Our work focuses on affective polarization and sorting with respect to identity groups among the electorate. However attempts to prevent and reverse polarization must also take account of the mechanisms that enable elite [31,32] and ideological polarization [32,33], and must account for the role of factors such as geography [34] and population and social network structure [35][36][37] in producing mass polarization, in addition to the inter-group and economic factors studied here. We must also remain alert to the circumstances under which polarization can provide benefits [38,39] (e.g.…”

A Systems Framework for Remedying Distortions in U.S. Democracy

“…Third, rules can serve as integrators over time, converting temporary shifts in power to long-lasting changes that resist change or mitigation. Finally, the combined effects of these mechanisms can generate nonlinear dynamics, leading to rapid acceleration of a particular characteristic of the system beyond a critical threshold (18), leading to sudden change that is not predicted by gradualist analysis, i.e. revolution or collapse.…”

“…Mapping these concepts onto the political world in a rigorous manner may be of practical value in detecting and even averting future disruptions. For example, several papers in this volume argue that polarization trends in this country exhibit the property of criticality (18,23,24). The following properties of a complex system may be implicated in the nonlinear processes producing criticality.…”

“…As interest groups and activists achieve more success, the emergence of "teamsmanship" encourages unaligned interest groups to choose a side and intensifies conflict (39). Studies suggest these sources of feedback have pushed or are close to pushing elite polarization over a critical threshold (18).…”

The dynamics of political polarization

“…Leonard et al (8) focus on the polarization of elites, meaning elected officials, exploring reinforcement mechanisms and subtle differences between Republicans and Democrats that are the result of asymmetric polarization. They show that small polarization differences in public opinion can influence selfreinforcement of relevant attitudes among the elites, that tipping points can occur at which polarization speeds up, and that Republicans seem to have already passed the critical threshold while Democrats are approaching it.…”