The online structure and development of posting behaviour in Dutch anti-vaccination groups on Telegram

Abstract

Online communities play an important role in spreading public discontent and could contribute to polarization. This study focuses on anti-vaccination views in the Netherlands, which have intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined the structure and development of five Dutch anti-vaccination Telegram groups and studied their interactivity and posting behaviour. Using group-based trajectory modelling, we examined the development of users’ posting behaviour in these groups. We find four posting trajectories across all five groups. A small group of users contributes the majority of posts. Overall, posting frequency declines over time and our results do not show evidence for a group of users whose posting frequency increases. This is taken to indicate that only a small group of users spread their anti-vaccination views through Telegram groups. While social media can reach a broad audience, most users are not necessarily engaged to also actively contribute to the online anti-vaccination community.

Do Conspiracy Theories Shape or Rationalize Vaccination Hesitancy Over Time?

“…Moreover, vaccination intentions and conspiracy beliefs are shaped by a myriad of factors and, therefore, are likely to change over time. For instance, vaccination intentions are influenced by political communications (Hornsey et al, 2020; Pink et al, 2021) and social media behavior (Rathje et al, 2022; Schlette et al, 2022). Conspiracy beliefs change over time during election campaigns (Golec de Zavala & Federico, 2018; Wang & Van Prooijen, 2023), and of particular relevance for the present purposes, show cross-lagged relationships across multiple time points with various health responses (e.g., physical distancing) during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic (Bierwiaczonek et al, 2020, 2022; Pummerer et al, 2022; Van Prooijen et al, 2022, 2023).…”