Some philosophers of science -the present author included -appeal to fiction as an interpretation of the practice of modeling. This raises the specter of an incompatibility with realism, since fictionmaking is essentially non-truth-regulated. I argue that the prima facie conflict can be resolved in two ways, each involving a distinct notion of fiction and a corresponding formulation of realism. The main goal of the paper is to describe these two packages. Toward the end I comment on how to choose among them.
IntroductionSometimes philosophers of science appeal to fiction by way of dismissal: misguided theoretical efforts -the positing of ether, epicycles, gemmules -are seen as "merely fictional", mistakes which serve, at best, as stepping stones on the way to better science. But recent discussion has increasingly included an interpretive appeal to fiction. Here the idea is that certain aspects of theoretical science, especially modeling, can be illuminated by drawing an analogy to works of art such as novels and feature films. My interest here is in this interpretive project -specifically in its compatibility with some form of scientific realism. Viewing models as fictional implies that they are often untrue. More importantly, it means that they are, at least in the first instance, not regulated by truth. This implies that in order to hold on to realism we need to locate a locus of truth in modeling that is different than the models themselves, yet permits a stance that is appropriately thought of as realism about the fruits of 1 For oral and written comments I am indebted to Mauricio Suarez and Martin modeling. I will argue that this can be had, if both realism and "fictionalism" 2 are given the right formulation. Indeed, I will argue that there are two possible fictionalism-plus-realism packages. I'll mainly describe these packages, but toward the end I discuss reasons for choosing among them.
Setting up the ProblemLet me start by motivating the interpretive appeal to fictions, via an example drawn from recent theoretical work on the onset of cancer. Cancer often arises in small compartments within a tissue -e.g. so-called "crypts" in the colon. An important theoretical question is whether the architecture of such compartments affects the likelihood of cancer. The so-called "linear process model" represents one attempt to address this question (see Figure 1). In this model a compartment is described as a production line of sorts, in which cells "pop in" at one end and leave (i.e. die) at the other end. Martin Nowak and colleagues have shown that this kind of architecture substantially reduces the likelihood of cancer (Nowak et. al, 2003). These observations suggest that models -at least some models, those that contain idealization, perhaps -bear important similarities to fictions. Indeed several recent authors have argued that modeling is a species of fiction-making (Godfey-Smith, 2006Frigg, 2010;Toon, 2010). I too find this suggestion attractive (although in a somewhat qualified form -see Levy, forth...