Abstract. This article presents the results of a bifurcation analysis of a simple energy balance model (EBM)
for the future climate of the Earth. The main focus is on the following question: can the nonlinear
processes intrinsic to atmospheric physics, including natural positive feedback mechanisms, cause
a mathematical bifurcation of the climate state, as a consequence of continued anthropogenic
forcing by rising greenhouse gas emissions? Our analysis shows that such a bifurcation could
cause an abrupt change to a drastically different climate state in the EBM, which is warmer and more
equable than any climate existing on Earth since the Pliocene epoch. In previous papers, with
this EBM adapted to paleoclimate conditions, it was shown to exhibit saddle-node and cusp
bifurcations, as well as hysteresis. The EBM was validated by the agreement of its predicted
bifurcations with the abrupt climate changes that are known to have occurred in the paleoclimate
record, in the Antarctic at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) and in the Arctic at the
Pliocene–Paleocene transition (PPT). In this paper, the EBM is adapted to fit Anthropocene
climate conditions, with emphasis on the Arctic and Antarctic climates. The four Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCP) considered by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are used to model future CO2
concentrations, corresponding to different scenarios of anthropogenic activity. In addition, the
EBM investigates four naturally occurring nonlinear feedback processes which magnify the warming
that would be caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone. These four feedback mechanisms
are ice–albedo feedback, water vapour feedback, ocean heat transport feedback, and atmospheric
heat transport feedback. The EBM predicts that a bifurcation resulting in a catastrophic climate
change, to a pre-Pliocene-like climate state, will occur in coming centuries for an RCP with
unabated anthropogenic forcing, amplified by these positive feedbacks. However, the EBM also
predicts that appropriate reductions in carbon emissions may limit climate change to a more
tolerable continuation of what is observed today. The globally averaged version of this EBM has
an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 4.34 K, near the high end of the likely range reported
by the IPCC.