Future scenarios and their implications for technology innovationFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1377Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK R ® is a registered trademark.
© 2016 Innovate UKRAND Europe is a not-for-profit organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the sponsor.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.randeurope.org iii Preface RAND Europe, in collaboration with Risk Solutions and Dr Johanna Zmud from the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, was commissioned by Innovate UK to develop future travel scenarios for 2035, considering possible social and economic changes and exploiting key technologies and innovation in ways that could reduce congestion. The purpose of this independent research is to explore and examine how new technologies may infl uence travel and to facilitate discussion about how transport can be more effi cient in future. In no way are the fi ndings intended to refl ect the views, opinions or policy of Innovate UK or the UK Government.The scenario methodology focuses on identifying the potential impact of critical factors and technologies on fi ve activities and the travel associated with them -undertaking work and business, shopping, seeking healthcare, making long-distance journeys for work or leisure, and freight activity. It combines expert opinion, gathered via in-person workshops, with crossimpact analysis, consistency analysis and cluster analysis. The scenarios are then used to identify innovation investments and policies that provide benefi ts across the range of possible futures.This report describes the main aspects of the study: the identifi cation of key future technologies, the development of the scenarios, and the fi ndings from interviews with experts about what the scenarios may mean for innovation and policy priorities. It may be of use to policymakers or researchers who are interested in future travel and the infl uence of technology.RAND Europe is a not-for-profi t organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND Europe's clients include European governments, institutions, NGOs and fi rms with a need for rigorous, independent, multidisciplinary analysis.