The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming

Li, Shujun; Wu, Lixin; Yang, Yun; Geng, Tao; Cai, Wenju; Gan, Bolan; Chen, Zhaohui; Jing, Zhao; Wang, Guojian; Ma, Xiaoyan

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0663-x

Cited by 73 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…warming scenarios. Consistent with previous findings (Fang et al 2014;Cheng et al 2016;MacMartin et al 2016;Armstrong et al 2017;Wang and Li 2017;Li et al 2019), we find that a robust response of PDO and AMV to global warming is a weakening of decadal variability, especially under strong global warming. Furthermore, we find that interannual variability shows relatively less change and could even increase relative to the decadal variability under global warming.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Previous analyses studied the response of decadal variability to global warming. Some studies suggested that, under global warming, the time scale and amplitude of the decadal variability in the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) (Fang et al 2014;Wang and Li 2017;Li et al 2019) and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) tend to decrease (Cheng et al 2016;MacMartin et al 2016;Armstrong et al 2017). Most previous research studied the response under global warming in the Pacific and Atlantic separately.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decadal Variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic under Global Warming: The Weakening Response and Its Mechanism

Liu

2020

Journal of Climate

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We investigate the response of decadal variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic under global warming and its mechanism in this study. To do so, we use four models (bcc-csm1-1, CCSM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-LR) participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on three global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our analysis shows that the intensified global warming leads to a decrease in amplitude of both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), resulting in reduced decadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in both North Pacific and North Atlantic. In comparison, interannual variability is less impacted by global warming and has a tendency of increase, which leads to a shift of spectral power from decadal toward interannual variability. We then show the weakening decadal variability is caused partly by the weakened forcing of atmospheric heat flux variability, and partly by the increased SST damping rate. In addition, an enhanced upper-ocean stratification under global warming also contributes to the acceleration of Rossby waves, and a shift of decadal variability spectral power toward a shorter period.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal Variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic under Global Warming: The Weakening Response and Its Mechanism

Liu

2020

Journal of Climate

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“…However, observation based methods are needed to verify the simulated results. The ocean variabilities that drive the climate are only partially established and may change as the global temperature increases, e.g., Li et al [22] on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Alternatively, the climate changes with some yet unidentified variables.…”

Section: Ocean Cyclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Ocean Dynamics in the North Atlantic: Achievements and Challenges

Seip

2020

Climate

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I address 12 issues related to the study of ocean dynamics and its impact on global temperature change, regional and local climate change, and on the North Atlantic ecosystem. I outline the present achievements and challenges that lie ahead. I start with observations and methods to extend the observations of ocean oscillations over time and end with challenges to find connections between ocean dynamics in the North Atlantic and dynamics in other parts of the globe.

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“…They are projected to slightly decrease in frequency under climate change (low confidence) [17]. Projections, however, [34][35][36][37] suggest that the frequency of extreme ENSO events will increase from one in 20 years to one in 10 years within the 21st century and the PDO will become less predictable [38]. This impliess that severe droughts in Tonga may increase in frequency.…”

Section: Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Estimated per capita daily groundwater demands ( [38]: "There is general international consensus that there is a positive correlation between infrastructure and economic outcomes and that investment in infrastructure is a major driver of productivity. Core (Table 1).…”

Section: Demographics Water Use Water Sources and Reliabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Meeting SDG6 in the Kingdom of Tonga: The Mismatch between National and Local Sustainable Development Planning for Water Supply

White¹,

Falkland²,

Kula³

2020

Preprint

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UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goal 6 presents difficulties for small island developing states such as the Kingdom of Tonga, which relies on rainwater and groundwater lenses for freshwater supply. Planning and managing water resources to supply demands in dispersed small islands under variable climate and frequent extreme events is challenging. Tensions between water planning using top-down versus bottom-up processes have long been recognized. Tonga’s overarching national planning instrument is the Tonga Strategic Development Framework, 2015-2025 (TSDFII). This identifies desired national outcomes and is used to direct and resource Ministries and address international and regional commitments. Water supply was a low priority in the three-month consultations that led to TSDFII. Community Development Plans (CDPs), developed by rural villages throughout Tonga’s five Island Groups over nine years, involved participation from 80% of each village population who ranked local priorities. Analysis of priorities in 117 available village CDPs reveals improvements to village water supply was the highest overall priority in all five Island Groups and ranked within the top three priorities by 76% of all villages, with women, youth and men returning figures of 83%, 66% and 80% respectively. The mismatch between top-down and bottom-up priorities appears to result from an urban/rural divide.

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The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming

Cited by 73 publications

References 42 publications

Decadal Variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic under Global Warming: The Weakening Response and Its Mechanism

Decadal Variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic under Global Warming: The Weakening Response and Its Mechanism

A Review of Ocean Dynamics in the North Atlantic: Achievements and Challenges

Meeting SDG6 in the Kingdom of Tonga: The Mismatch between National and Local Sustainable Development Planning for Water Supply

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