The pathway from distrusting Western actors to non-compliance with public health guidance during the COVID-19 crisis in Romania

Abstract

Global crises provide a fertile environment for the proliferation of disinformation, rumors, and conspiracy narratives. We investigate people's perceptions and beliefs related to COVID-19 in Romania, during the lockdown period (April 2020) and during the state of alert period (July 2020), by fielding two surveys with different modes of collection (CATI and web). Building on measures tested in other countries, we identify the public’s vulnerability to conspiracy narratives and its willingness to comply with public health guidance. Using Structural Equation Modeling, we check if individuals exhibiting pro-Russian or anti-Western attitudes believe more strongly in COVID-19 conspiracy narratives compared to the rest of the population. Then, we check if those believing conspiracy narratives are less susceptible to comply with public health recommendations.We find in both surveys that holding conspiracy beliefs is a mediator between distrusting Western actors and noncompliance with COVID-19 guidelines. Thus, pro-Russian and anti-EU, U.S. and NATO attitudes are linked to stronger conspiracy beliefs, which relate to lower levels of concern and knowledge regarding the virus, which in turn can reduce compliance with guidelines. This suggests that openness to anti-Western narratives may have behavioral consequences. These findings highlight the potential sources of unsafe behaviors during the pandemic and can inform official communication strategies meant to counter both disinformation and non-compliance with public health policies.

Antecedents and consequences of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: a systematic review

“…Personality traits associated with distrust and paranoia 33 , such as the Dark Tetrad traits 30 , and general distrust in authoritieswhether scientists 5,15 , governments 82 including U.S. state governments 22 or other elites 91 and other people 143,144 have been strong predictors of belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories, which describe COVID-19 to a varying degree as threat 5 (see Table 1). These low levels of trust become a toxic mix in an environment with a constant threat, boosting the adoption of conspiracy beliefs.…”

“…Religiosity is also connected to COVID-19 conspiracy theories in Turkey 23 . Holding pro-Russian as well as anti-EU, U.S. and NATO attitudes was also associated with stronger COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs in Romania, potentially because both weaken trust in national institutions and international allies 82 .…”

“…However, while trust in science and conspiracy belief seem irreconcilable, both trust in scientists and belief that COVID-19 was artificially created predicted compliance to COVID-19 guidelines15 ; potentially due a suspicion that the artificially created virus might be used against oneself.Oftentimes, scientific information is not directly transmitted from scientists, but relayed by governments or national health institutions, rendering trust in these institutions critical. Distrust in the government, the military, doctors, scientists, the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations, and the European Union (EU) were associated with belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories in England 5 and in part in Romania82 . Distrust in government officials further mediated the relationship of (political) COVID-19 and generic conspiracy beliefs with reduced adherence to guidelines in Croatia7 and Germany86,90 .…”

With the little help of science understanding: Examining the direct and indirect role of scientific reasoning and trust in science in normative health behaviour during pandemic

“…the science and its processes. Trust in authorities (and scientific authorities among them) was shown to be an important predictor of many conspiracy theories (Achimescu et al, 2020;Bruder & Kunert, 2020;De Coninck et al, 2021;Freeman et al, 2020;Kim & Kim, 2021;Šrol et al, 2021;van Mulukom, 2020) and it mediated the negative effect of conspiracy theories on adherence to guidelines (Bruder & Kunert, 2020;Karić & Međedović, 2021;Pavela Banai et al, 2020;Plohl & Musil, 2020;Pummerer et al, 2020).…”

Dual pathway model of conspiracy beliefs: Interactions between epistemic and socio-existential needs and resources

“…Socio-existential pathway. Belief in COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs is also predicted by personality traits associated with distrust and paranoia (Kay, 2020;Kowalski et al, 2020) as well as general distrust in people (Mandalaywala et al, 2020;Tabri et al, 2020) and authorities such as governments (Achimescu et al, 2020;Earnshaw et al, 2020), healthcare institutions and scientists (Freeman et al, 2020;van Mulukom, 2020), a type of anti-elitism (Eberl et al, 2020) which may be associated with people's socioeconomic status or minority status. These low levels of trust become a toxic mix in an environment of threat.…”