The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential

Jones, Jeanne M.; Ng, Peter H. F.; Wood, Nathan J.

doi:10.3133/tm11c9

Cited by 14 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Nonresidential sites were classified as church, community center, school, health care center, hotel, industrial site, office, recreational site, village shelter, or store. Pedestrian travel times to safety are based on a least-cost distance (LCD) model implemented in ESRI's ArcMap 10.5 geographic information system (GIS) software that takes into account the slope and land cover of an area to calculate the most efficient paths on foot to safety from every location in a hazard zone (Wood and Schmidtlein 2013;Jones et al 2014). Pedestrian travel times out of the 2009 and PMT hazard zones for American Samoa were estimated using an anisotropic, path distance model where the difficulty of traveling through each location is represented as a cost in terms of increased travel time.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: a case study of American Samoa

et al. 2018

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Population vulnerability from tsunamis is a function of the number and location of individuals in hazard zones and their ability to reach safety before wave arrival. Previous tsunami disasters can provide insight on likely evacuation behavior, but post-disaster assessments have not been used extensively in evacuation modeling. We demonstrate the utility of postdisaster assessments in pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards and use the US territory of American Samoa as our case study. We model pedestrian travel times out of tsunami inundation zones recreated for the 2009 M w 8.1 Samoa earthquake, as well as for a probable maximum tsunami zone for future threats. Modeling assumptions are guided by fatality trends and observations of 2009 evacuation behavior, including insights on departure delays, environmental cues, transportation mode, and demographic characteristics. Differences in actual fatalities from the 2009 disaster and modeled population vulnerability suggest that a single set of estimated travel times to safety does not fully characterize evacuation potential of a dispersed, at-risk population. Efforts to prepare coastal communities in American Samoa for future tsunamis may be challenging given substantial differences in wave characteristics and evacuation potential of the probable maximum hazard compared to the 2009 event.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: a case study of American Samoa

et al. 2018

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“…Results provide an opportunity to also assess the associated risk to infrastructure and consider emergency management (i.e. analysis of time required for people to reach a safe area based on a dedicated USGS modelling tool (Jones et al, 2014)). Validation of the model with Etna observations, model parameters and both eruptive and atmospheric parameters are described in Appendices A, B and C, respectively; in addition, data on historical activity at Mount Etna (Table S1), wind analysis (Figs S1-6), model sensitivity analysis , and additional hazard 25 and evacuation-time analyses are presented in the supplementary material.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1.5 km of roads are in the 20-30 % probability area, with a further 11 km plus the 5 Baita delle Guide hut in the 10-20 % probability area. A total of 112 km of roads, 14 buildings, 14 km of ski trails, 6 ski lifts and the Funivia dell'Etna cable car are in the 1-10 % probability area.6 Pedestrian evacuation analysisThe USGS Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst (PEA) tool(Jones et al, 2014) was used to estimate how long it would take for people at the summit to descend to a safe area for each of the hazard scenarios. The main inputs are: Digital elevation model of the area (90 m resolution SRTM data).…”

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confidence: 99%

Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts

Osman

Rossi

Bonadonna

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Fallout of ballistic blocks and bombs ejected from eruptive vents represents a well-known hazard in proximal areas.However, fallout of large clasts sedimenting from plume margins extending to medial areas with the potential to produce severe injuries to people and cause damage to infrastructure, is often overlooked. Recent eruptive events at Mount Etna (Italy) provide a clear example where large-clast fallout from plume margins (>5 cm) has posed a real threat both to the many visitors reaching the summit area and to local infrastructure, and, therefore, has been selected as a case study. To quantify this hazard, 15 a new particle-sedimentation model was calibrated with field data and then used for probabilistic hazard assessments. For a fully probabilistic scenario the hazard zone covered 72 km 2 and included some 125 km of paths and roads, and 15 buildings; evacuation on foot to a safe area was estimated at almost 4 hours, but this could be reduced to less than 3 hours if two shelters were provided. Our results show the importance of integrating probabilistic hazard analysis of large-clast fallout within effective strategies of risk management and reduction, especially in the case of volcanoes where visitors can reach the summit 20 areas.

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“…Pedestrian travel times were mapped using an anisotropic, path distance, geospatial model implemented within ArcMap 10.2 software that focuses on the slope and land cover of an area to calculate the most efficient paths on foot to safety from every location in the Alameda evacuation zones (Wood and Schmidtlein 2012;Jones et al 2014). Difficulty of traveling through each location is represented as a cost in terms of increased travel time.…”

Section: Pedestrian Evacuation Potentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Travel cost surfaces that integrate land cover and slope variability are converted to maps of pedestrian travel times using a travel speed assumption of 1.22 m s -1 (Jones et al 2014). This average walk assumption was chosen to reflect the mixed population of varying mobility, as well as the potential for slowing due to fatigue.…”

Section: Pedestrian Evacuation Potentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California

et al. 2016

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Tsunami-evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically based on maximum evacuation zones for a single scenario or a composite of sources; however, this approach may over-evacuate a community and overly disrupt the local economy and strain emergency-service resources. To minimize the potential for future over-evacuations, multiple evacuation zones based on arrival time and inundation extent are being developed for California coastal communities. We use the coastal city of Alameda, California (USA), as a case study to explore population and evacuation implications associated with multiple tsunami-evacuation zones. We use geospatial analyses to estimate the number and type of people in each tsunami-evacuation zone and anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to estimate pedestrian travel time out of each zone. Results demonstrate that there are tens of thousands of individuals in tsunami-evacuation zones on the two main islands of Alameda, but they will likely have sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Quality of life could be impacted by the high number of government offices, schools, day-care centers, and medical offices in certain evacuation zones and by potentially high population density 123Nat Hazards (2016) 84:975-995 DOI 10.1007/s11069-016-2469 at one identified safe area after an evacuation. Multi-jurisdictional evacuation planning may be warranted, given that many at-risk individuals may need to evacuate to neighboring jurisdictions. The use of maximum evacuation zones for local tsunami sources may be warranted given the limited amount of available time to confidently recommend smaller zones which would result in fewer evacuees; however, this approach may also result in over-evacuation and the incorrect perception that successful evacuations are unlikely.

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The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential

Cited by 14 publications

References 3 publications

Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: a case study of American Samoa

Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: a case study of American Samoa

Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts

Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California

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