The Performance of a Medium-Range Forecast Model in Winter–Impact of Physical Parameterizations

Hollingsworth, A.; Arpe, Klaus; Tiedtke, M.; Capaldo, M.; Savijärvi, Hannu

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1736:tpoamr>2.0.co;2

Cited by 117 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…One can see that the surface pressure decreases (increases) in the higher (lower) latitudes as the forecast progresses. Such a systematic error of surface pressure was commonly found in many other NWP models and GCM models (Hollingsworth et al, 1980;Derome,1981;Wallace et al, 1983 andWoessener, 1981). It is clearly shown that the error is reduced by using the envelope orography.…”

Section: Brief Description Of Envelope Orographysupporting

confidence: 55%

“…In general, the latent heat release by condensation is not accurately parameterized in the models. However, Hollingsworth et al (1980) showed in their experiment using the two different parameterization schemes for physical processes that both sets of forecasts had similar systematic errors and suggested that there are other forcings to produce them. The mountain forcing is a possible candidate for it .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impact of Envelope Orography on JMA's Hemispheric NWP Forecasts for Winter Circulation

Iwasaki

Sumi

1986

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We have investigated some effects of an envelope orography on the forecast fields by a hemispheric spectral model. For that, a series of 29 experiments is conducted for February 1984. The use of envelope orography improves the daily forecasts. In particular, it remarkably reduces the systematic forecast errors of zonal mean and planetary wave fields. This suggests that the envelopetype enhancement of mountain forcing is very effective in the maintenance of planetary scale stationary fields. In the zonal mean field, the forecast error of latitudinal mass distribution that the surface pressure increases (decreases) in lower (higher) latitudes with increasing forecast period, is reduced. That is, the excessive zonal mean equatorward flow in the lower troposphere at middle latitudes is effectively reduced. This flow change also modifies the predicted zonal mean temperature in the lower troposphere.With regard to the stationary waves, the response of the model atmosphere to the envelope orography varies largely with the latitude. In higher latitudes (60N), the improvement of the wave number 3 pattern is most remarkable.Their temporal variation suggests a remote control of the mountain forcings originating from middle latitudes. In middle latitudes (40N), a significant difference between the two forecasts with standard and envelope orographies appears around 80E. Its temporal behavior suggests that the difference is directly caused by the difference of mountain forcings around the Himalayas.Temperature differences between two forecasts occur mainly through the horizontal advection of sensible heat. The forecasts of cold surge events are also modified by the envelope orography.

show abstract

Section: Brief Description Of Envelope Orographysupporting

confidence: 55%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Impact of Envelope Orography on JMA's Hemispheric NWP Forecasts for Winter Circulation

Iwasaki

Sumi

1986

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Þ 2 , for which SS > 0.2 implies a useful prediction [e.g., Hollingsworth et al, 1980]. The SS result for our simulation (Table 2) indicates satisfactory results [Murphy and Epstein, 1989].…”

Section: Quantitative Validationsupporting

confidence: 50%

“…The high SS and AC (SS > 0.5 and AC > 0.8) in summer and autumn (June-October) indicate that the simulation is a ''useful prediction'' [e.g., Hollingsworth et al, 1980]. However, the values of SS < 0 and AC < 0.5 from winter to spring (December-May) imply errors in the simulation of the winter mixed layer in the bay.…”

Section: Quantitative Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated approach to the heat and water mass dynamics of a large bay: High-resolution simulations of Funka Bay, Japan

Nakada

Ishikawa

Awaji

et al. 2013

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

[1] Heat and water mass transports tagged by water type in a bay were investigated using daily outputs from a high-resolution land-sea coupled model. The modeled circulation and water property distribution were similar to those reported by observations. In this paper, the heat angle is introduced to accurately define the roles of the lateral heat flux (LF) into the bay and the net surface heat flux on temperature changes in the bay water. As a result, ocean phenomena in the bay can be categorized by using the heat angle in an intensive LF regime on short-period timescales and a gradual LF regime on intraseasonal timescales. Our close examination revealed that the velocity fields can be classified into three flow patterns: a twin vortex accompanied by positive LF, a clockwise flow with negative LF, and an anticlockwise flow with both LFs. These patterns occur in both intensive and gradual LF regimes. Intensive wind-driven LF forced by atmospheric disturbances was often observed from summer to autumn in 2008, accompanying the intrusion of southern subtropical Tsugaru warm water that was colder than the deep bay water (LF < 0) and subarctic Oyashio water that was warmer than the surface bay water (LF > 0), but both were hardly found in 2009. This thermal contrast affects the interannual difference in the stratification inherent in the bay. Our integrated analysis method is useful for prompt and robust understanding of the thermal and dynamic states in a bay based on ocean simulation data.

show abstract

“…Erroneous representations of heating in tropical regions force systematic errors in extratropical weather (e.g. Hollingsworth et al 1980;Simmons 1982).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution and modulation of tropical heating from the last glacial maximum through the twenty-first century

Hoyos

Webster

2011

Clim Dyn

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Twentieth century observations show that during the last 50 years the sea-surface temperature (SST) of the tropical oceans has increased by *0.5°C and the area of SST [26.5 and 28°C (arbitrarily referred to as the oceanic warm pool: OWP) by 15 and 50% respectively in association with an increase in green house gas concentrations, with non-understood natural variability or a combination of both. Based on CMIP3 projections the OWP is projected to double during twenty-first century in a moderate CO 2 forcing scenario (IPCC A1B scenario). However, during the observational period the area of positive atmospheric heating (referred to as the dynamic warm pool, DWP), has remained constant. The threshold SST (T H ), which demarks the region of net heating and cooling, has increased from 26.6°C in the 1950s to 27.1°C in the last decade and it is projected to increase to *28.5°C by 2100. Based on climate model simulations, the area of the DWP is projected to remain constant during the twenty-first century. Analysis of the paleoclimate model intercomparison project (PMIP I and II) simulations for the Last Glacial maximum and the Mid-Holocene periods show a very similar behaviour, with a larger OWP in periods of elevated tropical SST, and an almost constant DWP associated with a varying T H . The constancy of the DWP area, despite shifts in the background SST, is shown to be the result of a near exact matching between increases in the integrated convective heating within the DWP and the integrated radiative cooling outside the DWP as SST changes. Although the area of the DWP remains constant, the total tropical atmospheric heating is a strong function of the SST. For example the net heating has increased by about 10% from 1950 to 2000 and it is projected to increase by a further 20% by 2100. Such changes must be compensated by a more vigorous atmospheric circulation, with growth in convective heating within the warm pool, and an increase of subsiding air and stability outside the convective warm pool and an increase of vertical shear at the DWP boundaries. This finding is contrary to some conclusions from other studies but in accord with others. We discuss the similarities and differences at length.

show abstract

The Performance of a Medium-Range Forecast Model in Winter–Impact of Physical Parameterizations

Cited by 117 publications

References 0 publications

Impact of Envelope Orography on JMA's Hemispheric NWP Forecasts for Winter Circulation

Impact of Envelope Orography on JMA's Hemispheric NWP Forecasts for Winter Circulation

An integrated approach to the heat and water mass dynamics of a large bay: High-resolution simulations of Funka Bay, Japan

Evolution and modulation of tropical heating from the last glacial maximum through the twenty-first century

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About