SUMMARY ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized.A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the * Corresponding author: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK. e-mail: adrian.simmons@ecmwf. southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the 'second-generation' ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases.

This study investigates the impact of model resolution on the hydrological cycle in a suite of model simulations using a new version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Special attention is paid to the evaluation of precipitation on the regional scale by comparing model simulations with observational data in a number of catchments representing the major river systems on the earth in different climate zones. It is found that an increased vertical resolution, from 19 to 31 atmospheric layers, has a beneficial effect on simulated precipitation with respect to both the annual mean and the annual cycle. On the other hand, the influence of increased horizontal resolution, from T63 to T106, is comparatively small. Most of the improvements at higher vertical resolution, on the scale of a catchment, are due to large-scale moisture transport, whereas the impact of local water recycling through evapotranspiration is somewhat smaller. At high horizontal and vertical resolution (T106L31) the model captures most features of the observed hydrological cycle over land, and also the local and remote precipitation response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.Major deficiencies are the overestimation of precipitation over the oceans, especially at higher vertical resolution, along steep mountain slopes and during the Asian summer monsoon season, whereas a dry bias exists over Australia. In addition, the model fails to reproduce the observed precipitation response to ENSO variability in the Indian Ocean and Africa. This might be related to missing coupled air-sea feedbacks in an AGCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures.

Aim  To generate maps of potential refugia for summer‐green trees during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Locations  Southern Europe and south‐western Asia. Methods  Time‐slice simulations of the atmospheric climate with the ECHAM3 model are used for the LGM. Limiting factors beyond which cool and warm groups of deciduous trees cannot grow (such as temperature in growing degree days, minimum monthly temperature and precipitation in summer) are chosen. A limited validation by fossil pollen and charcoal records from LGM sites was done. Results  Two sets of maps extending from Europe to the Caspian region for cool and warm summer‐green trees are presented. Three criteria are combined using contour lines to indicate confidence levels. Small areas within the three southern peninsulas of Europe (Spain, Italy and Greece) are highlighted as possible refugia for summer‐green trees. Further, areas that have remained poorly known are now proposed as refugia, including the Sakarya–Kerempe region in northern Turkey, the east coast of the Black Sea and the area south of the Caspian Sea. Main conclusions  The maps produced in this study could be used to facilitate better long‐term management for the protection of European and south‐western Asian biodiversity.

Observations have shown that the monsoon is a highly variable phenomenon of the tropical troposphere, which exhibits significant variance in the temporal range of two to three years. The reason for this specific interannual variability has not yet been identified unequivocally. Observational analyses have also shown that El Nino indices or western Pacific SSTs exhibit some power in the two to three year period range and therefore it was suggested that an ocean-atmosphere interaction could excite and support such a cycle. Similar mechanisms include land-surface-atmosphere interaction as a possible driving mechanism. A rather different explanation could be provided by a forcing mechanism based on the quasi-biennial oscillation of the zonal wind in the lower equatorial stratosphere (QBO). The QBO is a phenomenon driven by equatorial waves with periods of some days which are excited in the troposphere. Provided that the monsoon circulation reacts to the modulation of tropopause conditions as forced by the QBO, this could explain monsoon variability in the quasi-biennial window. The possibility of a QBO-driven monsoon variability is investigated in this study in a number of general circulation model experiments where the QBO is assimilated to externally controlled phase states. These experiments show that the boreal summer monsoon is significantly influenced by the QBO. A QBO westerly phase implies less precipitation in the western Pacific, but more in India, in agreement with observations. The austral summer monsoon is exposed to similar but weaker mechanisms and the precipitation does not change significantly