We have developed a new procedure for combining lists of substorm onset times from multiple sources. We apply this procedure to observational data and to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model output from 1-31 January 2005. We show that this procedure is capable of rejecting false positive identifications and filling data gaps that appear in individual lists. The resulting combined onset lists produce a waiting time distribution that is comparable to previously published results, and superposed epoch analyses of the solar wind driving conditions and magnetospheric response during the resulting onset times are also comparable to previous results. Comparison of the substorm onset list from the MHD model to that obtained from observational data reveals that the MHD model reproduces many of the characteristic features of the observed substorms, in terms of solar wind driving, magnetospheric response, and waiting time distribution. Heidke skill scores show that the MHD model has statistically significant skill in predicting substorm onset times.Plain Language Summary Magnetospheric substorms are a process of explosive energy release from the plasma environment on the nightside of the Earth. We have developed a procedure to identify substorms that uses multiple forms of observational data in combination. Our procedure produces a list of onset times for substorms, where each onset time has been independently confirmed by two or more observational data sets. We also apply our procedure to output from a physical model of the plasma environment surrounding the Earth and show that this model can predict a significant fraction of the substorm onset times.