The Post-Communist Fertility Puzzle

Abstract

Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist region. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis explanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.

Economic crisis and recovery: Changes in second birth rates within occupational classes and educational groups

“…However comparing Kaplan-Meier failure curves during the different periods reveals that the difference in second birth transitions between the two post socialist periods was largely driven by postponement of the second birth. This finding is in alignment with research that found a higher likelihood of postponement in more favorable economic contexts (Billingsley 2010). Still, the main picture is that of a decline in second birth rates after 1990 and that rates did not increase again to their pretransition levels.…”

“…In their micro data analysis, in fact found a positive relationship between labor market uncertainty/hardship and births between 1994 and 1996. On the other hand, macro level studies found evidence of a positive relationship between fertility and the economy across Russia and post communist Europe UNECE 2000;Cornia and Paniccia 1998;Billingsley 2010). Beyond the need for further research to understand these differential findings, Frejka (2008) has argued that the pathways through which fertility behavior was influenced during the critical transition period remain ambiguous and underspecified in much of the literature.…”

Second and Third Births in Armenia and Moldova: An Economic Perspective of Recent Behaviour and Current Preferences

“…These differences and how they may be related to developments in fertility behaviour and preferences will be further explored in this paper. While contrasting economic trajectories after Armenia's and Moldova's independence, this paper assesses past and current fertility measures from an economic perspective, which could be particularly relevant during a period of tremendous economic restructuring and crisis (Billingsley 2010b;Frejka 2008). A few distinct aims and questions structure this paper.…”

'The Proper Age for Parenthood' and Second Birth Rates in Europe

“…Previous studies have indicated that regional economic performance can affect fertility trends (for example Adsera 2011, Billingsley 2010. We therefore include a variable for regional GDP per capita, measured in purchasing power standards in 2004 for the NUTS1 regions, because regional wealth differs widely among the regions included in our models (see Table 1 for descriptive statistics).…”