The potential for spread of Erwinia amylovora and fire blight via commercial apple fruit; a critical review and risk assessment

Roberts, Rodney G.; Hale, Chris; Zwet, T. van der; Miller, Charles E.; Redlin, S. C.

doi:10.1016/s0261-2194(98)80008-2

Cited by 41 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Wearing et al (2001), reviewing potential spread of codling moth ( Cydia pomonella L.) via imported cherries, determined that up to 5% was discarded in suburban New Zealand. For urban Japan, Roberts et al (1998) calculated 0.5% disposal of apples infected with Erwinia amylovora (Burr. ), the pathogen of fire blight.…”

Section: R Esumenmentioning

confidence: 99%

<I>Copitarsia decolora</I> (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Larvae Escaping from Discarded Asparagus: Data in Support of a Pathway Risk Analysis

Gould

Maldonado²

2006

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Section: R Esumenmentioning

confidence: 99%

<I>Copitarsia decolora</I> (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Larvae Escaping from Discarded Asparagus: Data in Support of a Pathway Risk Analysis

Gould

Maldonado²

2006

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“…This percentage is expected to be much lower in Japan, where more people live in urban settings. Roberts et al (1998) assumed that the amount of infested fruit disposed of outside in Japan would be approximately 0.5% (range 0.1}1%). We assume this is appropriate for cherries infested with eggs or early instar larvae, where some infested fruit could be eaten.…”

Section: Cherry Marketing Sale and Disposal In Japanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The probability of infested cherries being disposed of in a place where continued development and later infestation is possible ( ) is based on the estimates of Roberts et al (1998) (see above). Using these estimates for the 5.5% of the fruit shipped to regions where the winter temperature on arrival would permit continued development, and assuming that suitable host trees are plentiful, the value of for eggs and early instar larvae is likely to be no more than 0.0003, and probably much lower.…”

Section: Host Availability In Japanmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential for spread of codling moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) via commercial sweet cherry fruit: a critical review and risk assessment

Wearing¹,

Hansen²,

Whyte³

et al. 2001

Crop Protection

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“…Quantitative probabilistic models have been used in several instances in risk assessment to estimate the probabilities of introduction and spread of plant pests (Fowler et al, 2006;Peterson et al, 2009;Roberts et al, 1998;Stansbury et al, 2002). The PLH Panel currently applies in its opinions quantitative methods for the assessment of climate suitability for establishment and of spread of plant pests.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction for the EU territory

Holt

Leach

Mumford

et al. 2016

EFSA Supporting Publications

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This report demonstrates a probabilistic quantitative pathway analysis model that can be used in risk assessment for plant pest introduction into EU territory on a range of edible commodities (apples, oranges, stone fruits and wheat). Two types of model were developed: a general commodity model that simulates distribution of an imported infested/infected commodity to and within the EU from source countries by month; and a consignment model that simulates the movement and distribution of individual consignments from source countries to destinations in the EU. The general pathway model has two modules. Module 1 is a trade pathway model, with a Eurostat database of five years of monthly trade volumes for each specific commodity into the EU28 from all source countries and territories. Infestation levels based on interception records, commercial quality standards or other information determine volume of infested commodity entering and transhipped within the EU. Module 2 allocates commodity volumes to processing, retail use and waste streams and overlays the distribution onto EU NUTS2 regions based on population densities and processing unit locations. Transfer potential to domestic host crops is a function of distribution of imported infested product and area of domestic production in NUTS2 regions, pest dispersal potential, and phenology of susceptibility in domestic crops. The consignment model covers the several routes on supply chains for processing and retail use. The output of the general pathway model is a distribution of estimated volumes of infested produce by NUTS2 region across the EU28, by month or annually; this is then related to the accessible susceptible domestic crop. Risk is expressed as a potential volume of infested fruit in potential contact with an area of susceptible domestic host crop. The output of the consignment model is a volume of infested produce retained at each stage along the specific consignment trade chain.

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The potential for spread of Erwinia amylovora and fire blight via commercial apple fruit; a critical review and risk assessment

Cited by 41 publications

References 56 publications

<I>Copitarsia decolora</I> (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Larvae Escaping from Discarded Asparagus: Data in Support of a Pathway Risk Analysis

<I>Copitarsia decolora</I> (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Larvae Escaping from Discarded Asparagus: Data in Support of a Pathway Risk Analysis

The potential for spread of codling moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) via commercial sweet cherry fruit: a critical review and risk assessment

Development of probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction for the EU territory

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