The potential impact of COVID-19 in refugee camps in Bangladesh and beyond:  A modeling study

Abstract

Background COVID-19 could have even more dire consequences in refugees camps than in general populations. Bangladesh has confirmed COVID-19 cases and hosts almost 1 million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, with 600,000 concentrated in the Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site (mean age, 21 years; standard deviation [SD], 18 years; 52% female). Projections of the potential COVID-19 burden, epidemic speed, and healthcare needs in such settings are critical for preparedness planning. Methods and findings To explore the potential impact of the introduction of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site, we used a stochastic Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered (SEIR) transmission model with parameters derived from emerging literature and age as the primary determinant of infection severity. We considered three scenarios with different assumptions about the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2. From the simulated infections, we estimated hospitalizations, deaths, and healthcare needs expected, age-adjusted for the Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site age distribution. Our findings suggest that a large-scale outbreak is likely after a single introduction of the virus into the camp, with 61%-92% of simulations leading to at least 1,000 people infected across scenarios. On average, in the first 30 days of the outbreak, we expect 18 (95% prediction interval [

4P Model for Dynamic Prediction of Covid-19 with statistical and machine learning approach: Social Dynamics, Government Roles and Pathogen Behavior on Bangladesh Perspective

“…Scientists are working on COVID-19's facts of Bangladesh and other countries to analyze and forecast the propagation using the conventional SIR and SEIR model initializing some implicit compartmental rate constants [87,88]. Hazardous civic interaction plays the role to diffuse transmissible viral particles which is possible to control by being acquiescence with the health norms and law and order of the government.…”

Translational Strategies to Control and Prevent Spread of COVID-19 in the Rohiynga Refugee Camps in Bangladesh

“…The refugee camps in Cox's Bazar are situated across 6,000 acres of land, with a population density of approximately 15 useable square meters per person (over 40,000 persons/square kilometer) [5,8,9]. The United Nations standard is three times higher, at 45 square meters per person [10].…”

“…The outbreak of COVID-19 is of utmost concern to the health and wellbeing of refugees [5]. Given the widespread and ongoing transmission of COVID-19 in Bangladesh, transmission into the refugee camps was inevitable [15].…”

“…In August 2017, because of genocidal violence against the Rohingya Muslim ethnic minority by the military in Myanmar, approximately one million Rohingya were forcibly displaced from their native land of Myanmar [3,4]. The Bangladeshi government, with the help of its development partners, sheltered the displaced refugees in 34 camps in the hilly terrain of Cox's Bazar district [5,6]. The displacement of Rohingya refugees from their homeland and consequent migration to Bangladesh caused a humanitarian crisis in the refugee camps [5,7].…”

“…The Bangladeshi government, with the help of its development partners, sheltered the displaced refugees in 34 camps in the hilly terrain of Cox's Bazar district [5,6]. The displacement of Rohingya refugees from their homeland and consequent migration to Bangladesh caused a humanitarian crisis in the refugee camps [5,7]. The recent identification of COVID-19 in the camps is causing serious concerns for Bangladesh and the international community as it aggravates the existing humanitarian crisis [5].…”