Background COVID-19 could have even more dire consequences in refugees camps than in general populations. Bangladesh has confirmed COVID-19 cases and hosts almost 1 million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, with 600,000 concentrated in the Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site (mean age, 21 years; standard deviation [SD], 18 years; 52% female). Projections of the potential COVID-19 burden, epidemic speed, and healthcare needs in such settings are critical for preparedness planning. Methods and findings To explore the potential impact of the introduction of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site, we used a stochastic Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered (SEIR) transmission model with parameters derived from emerging literature and age as the primary determinant of infection severity. We considered three scenarios with different assumptions about the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2. From the simulated infections, we estimated hospitalizations, deaths, and healthcare needs expected, age-adjusted for the Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site age distribution. Our findings suggest that a large-scale outbreak is likely after a single introduction of the virus into the camp, with 61%-92% of simulations leading to at least 1,000 people infected across scenarios. On average, in the first 30 days of the outbreak, we expect 18 (95% prediction interval [

Background: COVID-19 could have even more dire consequences in refugees camps than in general populations. Bangladesh has confirmed COVID-19 cases and hosts almost 1 million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar with 600,000 concentrated in Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site (age mean: 21 years, sd: 18 years, 52% female). Projections of the potential COVID-19 burden, epidemic speed, and healthcare needs in such settings are critical for preparedness planning. Methods and Findings: To explore the potential impact of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site, we used a stochastic SEIR transmission model with parameters derived from emerging literature and age as the primary determinant of infection severity. We considered three scenarios with different assumptions about the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2. From the simulated infections, we estimated hospitalizations, deaths, and healthcare needs expected, age-adjusted for the Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site age distribution. Our findings suggest that a large-scale outbreak is likely after a single introduction of the virus into the camp with 61-92% of simulations leading to at least 1,000 people infected across scenarios. On average, in the first 30 days of the outbreak, we expect 18 (95% prediction interval (PI), 2-65), 54 (95% PI, 3-223), and 370 (95% PI, 4-1,850) people infected in the low, moderate, and high transmission scenarios, respectively. These reach 421,500 (95% PI, 376,300-463,500), 546,800 (95% PI, 499,300-567,000) and 589,800 (95% PI, 578,800-595,600) people infected in 12 months, respectively. Hospitalization needs exceeded the existing hospitalization capacity of 340 beds after 55-136 days between the low and high transmission scenarios. We estimate 2,040 (95% PI, 1,660-2,500), 2,650 (95% PI, 2,030-3,380), and 2,880 (95% PI, 2,090-3,830) deaths in the low, moderate and high transmission scenarios, respectively. Due to limited data at the time of analyses, we assumed that age was the primary determinant of infection severity and hospitalization. We expect that comorbidities and limited hospitalization and intensive care capacity may increase this risk, thus we may be underestimating the potential burden. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that a COVID-19 epidemic in a refugee settlement may have profound consequences, requiring large increases in healthcare capacity and infrastructure that may exceed what is currently feasible in these settings. Detailed and realistic planning for the worst-case in Kutupalong-Balukhali and all refugee camps worldwide must begin now. Plans should consider novel and radical strategies to reduce infectious contacts and fill health worker gaps while recognizing that refugees may not have access to national health systems.

BackgroundPrimary healthcare systems in sub-Saharan Africa have undergone substantial development in an effort to expand access to appropriate facilities through a well-functioning referral system. The objective of this study was to evaluate the current patterns of seeking prior care before arriving at a health center or a hospital as a key aspect of the referral system of the primary health care unit (PHCU) in three regions in Ethiopia. We examined what percentage of patients had either sought prior care or had been referred to the present facility and identified demographic and clinical factors associated with having sought prior care or having been referred.Methods and FindingsWe conducted a cross-sectional study using face-to-face interviews in the local language with 796 people (99% response rate) seeking outpatient care in three primary health care units serving approximately 100,000 people each and reflecting regional and ethnic diversity; 53% (N = 418) of the sample was seeking care at hospital outpatient departments, and 47% of the sample was seeking care at health centers (N = 378). We used unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression to identify factors associated with having been referred or sought prior care. Our findings indicated that only 10% of all patients interviewed had been referred to their current place of care. Among those in the hospital population, 14% had been referred; among those in the health center population, only 6% had been referred. Of those who had been referred to the hospital, most (74%) had been referred by a health center. Among those who were referred to the health center, the plurality portion (32%) came from a nearby hospital (most commonly for continued HIV treatment or early childhood vaccinations); only 18% had come from a health post. Among patients who had not been formally referred, an additional 25% in the hospital sample and 10% in the health center sample had accessed some prior source of care for their present health concern. In the adjusted analysis, living a longer distance from the source of care and needing more specialized care were correlated with having sought prior care in the hospital sample. We found no factors significantly associated with having sought prior care in the health center sample.ConclusionsThe referral system among health facilities in Ethiopia is used by a minority of patients, suggesting that intended connections between health posts, health centers, and hospitals may need strengthening to increase the efficiency of primary care nationally.

Humanitarian organizations have developed innovative and context specific interventions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic as guidance has been normative in nature and most are not humanitarian specific. In April 2020, three universities developed a COVID-19 humanitarian-specific website (www.covid19humanitarian.com) to allow humanitarians from the field to upload their experiences or be interviewed by academics to share their creative responses adapted to their specific country challenges in a standardised manner. These field experiences are reviewed by the three universities together with various guidance documents and uploaded to the website using an operational framework. The website currently hosts 135 guidance documents developed by 65 different organizations, and 65 field experiences shared by 29 organizations from 27 countries covering 38 thematic areas. Examples of challenges and innovative solutions from humanitarian settings are provided for triage and sexual and gender-based violence. Offering open access resources on a neutral platform by academics can provide a space for constructive dialogue among humanitarians at the country, regional and global levels, allowing humanitarian actors at the country level to have a strong and central voice. We believe that this neutral and openly accessible platform can serve as an example for future large-scale emergencies and epidemics.

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