The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series

Gütschow, Johannes; Jeffery, M. Louise; Gieseke, Robert; Gebel, Ronja; Stevens, David P.; Krapp, Mario; Rocha, Marcia

doi:10.5194/essd-8-571-2016

Cited by 198 publications

(210 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Global emissions in the year 2010 are ∼51 GtCO 2 e yr −1 in our model, and year 2014 emissions are independently estimated11 at 54 GtCO 2 e yr −1 (90% uncertainty range of about ±10%)12. This implies that the current ambiguity in NDC formulations can result in emissions that either continue to increase, stabilize, or decrease by 2030, depending on their interpretation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…14. Historical GHG emissions use data from PRIMAPHIST11, CAIT43 and EDGAR42 with F-gases from ref. 44.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…11 and projected emissions under the current NDCs. Each line from 2010 to 2030 represents one of 144 modelled scenarios; ( b ) Cumulative distribution (line with individual scenario symbols on top, left axis) and histograms (bars, right axis) of GHG emission estimates for 2030 under the NDCs.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

et al. 2017

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The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO2e yr−1. We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…14. Historical GHG emissions use data from PRIMAPHIST11, CAIT43 and EDGAR42 with F-gases from ref. 44.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

et al. 2017

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“…If none of these are available (16 out of the 62 countries, covering~40% of net emissions and~1% of net removals), we use the freely available global data set from the "Emissions -Land use" domain of FAOSTAT (FAO, 2017) and PRIMAP-hist (Gütschow et al, 2016(Gütschow et al, , 2018; see section S2, Tables S5 and S7, and Figure S2). If none of these are available (16 out of the 62 countries, covering~40% of net emissions and~1% of net removals), we use the freely available global data set from the "Emissions -Land use" domain of FAOSTAT (FAO, 2017) and PRIMAP-hist (Gütschow et al, 2016(Gütschow et al, , 2018; see section S2, Tables S5 and S7, and Figure S2).…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These include the effects of different accounting rules, which are discussed elsewhere (e.g., Böttcher & Graichen, 2015;Grassi et al, 2017;Hansis et al, 2015 andUNFCCC, 2016), methodological uncertainties in how estimates of historic emissions and emissions projections or are made (Ciais et al, 2014;Krause et al, 2018;Smith et al, 2014), and uncertainties in LULUCF emission measurements, estimated at around ±50% (Gütschow et al, 2016;Le Quéré et al, 2018;Tubiello et al, 2015). These include the effects of different accounting rules, which are discussed elsewhere (e.g., Böttcher & Graichen, 2015;Grassi et al, 2017;Hansis et al, 2015 andUNFCCC, 2016), methodological uncertainties in how estimates of historic emissions and emissions projections or are made (Ciais et al, 2014;Krause et al, 2018;Smith et al, 2014), and uncertainties in LULUCF emission measurements, estimated at around ±50% (Gütschow et al, 2016;Le Quéré et al, 2018;Tubiello et al, 2015).…”

Section: Other Sources Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

Fyson

Jeffery

2019

Earth's Future

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Land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities, including deforestation and forest restoration, will play an important role in addressing climate change. Countries have stated their contributions to reducing emissions and enhancing sinks in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); in 2023, the Global Stocktake will assess the collective impact of these NDCs. Clarity in the contribution of LULUCF to NDC targets is necessary to prevent high LULUCF uncertainties from undermining the strength and clarity of mitigation in other sectors. We assess and categorize all 167 NDCs and find wide variation in how they incorporate LULUCF; many lack the clear information necessary to understand what land-based mitigation is anticipated. The land sector is included in 121 NDCs, but only 11 provide a LULUCF target that can be fully quantified using information presented or referenced in the NDC. By developing alternative scenarios from a subset of 62 NDCs (89 countries), we estimate that ambiguity in LULUCF contributions causes an uncertainty range in the anticipated LULUCF sink in 2030 of magnitude 2.9 GtCO2eq/year-larger in size than our best estimate for the LULUCF sink of −2 GtCO2eq/year. Clearer communication of data sources and assumptions underlying the contribution of land use to mitigation efforts is therefore important for ensuring a robust Global Stocktake and ambitious emissions reductions. We find that guidance under the Paris Agreement may improve the clarity of future NDCs but is not sufficient to eliminate ambiguities. We therefore recommend that LULUCF targets should be presented and accounted for separately from other sectors.Plain Language Summary Land-based activities, including reducing deforestation and planting forests, play an important role in addressing climate change. Under the Paris Agreement, 195 countries agreed to produce national climate change action plans for reducing their emissions. Many of these plans already include land-based activities, but there is currently no common rule set for how to do so in a scientifically robust way. Our study shows that most national climate action plans are ambiguous in how land-based activities will contribute to reducing emissions. This makes it difficult to track the role of land-based activities in global efforts to address climate change and leaves the door open for countries to use uncertain land-based mitigation to offset emissions from burning fossil fuels. We estimate that this ambiguity causes an uncertainty of~3 GtCO2/year in 2030; this is larger than our estimate of the total human-made land use sink in 2030 (-2 GtCO2/year). Recently, countries agreed a set of guidance for how to describe their climate change action plans. This guidance will help to reduce some ambiguity in the role of land-based mitigation, but it is not sufficient to eliminate ambiguity. We recommend that countries should keep their land-based mitigation plans separate from targets in other sectors.

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Extending Near‐Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs

et al. 2018

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In the Paris Agreement countries have agreed to act together to hold global warming well below 2°C over preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. To assess if the world is on track to meet this long‐term temperature goal, countries' pledged emissions reductions (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) need to be analyzed for their implied warming. Several research groups and nongovernmental organizations have estimated this warming and arrived at very different results but have invariably concluded that the current pledges are inadequate to hold warming below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C. In this paper we analyze different methods to estimate 2100 global mean temperature rise implied by countries' NDCs, which often only specify commitments until 2030. We present different methods to extend near‐term emissions pathways that have been developed by the authors or used by different research groups and nongovernmental organizations to estimate 21st century warming consequences of Paris Agreement commitments. The abilities of these methods to project both low and high warming scenarios in line with the scenario literature is assessed. We find that the simpler methods are not suitable for temperature projections while more complex methods can produce results consistent with the energy and economic scenario literature. We further find that some methods can have a strong high or low temperature bias depending on parameter choices. The choice of methods to evaluate the consistency of aggregated NDC commitments is very important for reviewing progress toward the Paris Agreement's long‐term temperature goal.

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The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series

Cited by 198 publications

References 40 publications

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

Extending Near‐Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs

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