The problem of prediction in invasion biology

Elliott-Graves, Alkistis

doi:10.1007/s10539-015-9504-0

Cited by 35 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…In recent decades, a multitude of plant-species traits and environmental characteristics have been identified that promote naturalization and invasiveness, such as fast growth, early flowering (Py sek & Richardson 2007;van Kleunen et al 2010), large native range and habitat affiliation in the native range (Rejm anek & Richardson 1996;Py sek et al 2015;Kalusov a et al 2017). Studies, however, have also revealed that the factors associated with plant invasions are stage- (Williamson 2006;Theoharides & Dukes 2007;Dawson et al 2009;Py sek et al 2009a;Moodley et al 2013) or context-dependent (Kueffer et al 2013;van Kleunen et al 2015b;Elliott-Graves 2016). Consequently, few of the characteristics explored so far appear to be universally linked to invasion success.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of adaptive strategies in plant naturalization

et al. 2018

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Determining the factors associated with the naturalization of alien species is a central theme in ecology. Here, we tested the usefulness of a metric for quantifying Grime's seminal concept of adaptive strategies - competitors, stress-tolerators and ruderals (CSR) - to explain plant naturalizations worldwide. Using a global dataset of 3004 vascular plant species, and accounting for phylogenetic relatedness and species' native biomes, we assessed the associations between calculated C-, S- and R-scores and naturalization success for species exhibiting different life forms. Across different plant life forms, C-scores were positively and S-scores negatively associated with both the probability of naturalization and the number of regions where the species has naturalized. R-scores had positive effects on the probability of naturalization. These effects of the scores were, however, weak to absent for tree species. Our findings demonstrate the utility of CSR-score calculation to broadly represent, and potentially explain, the naturalization success of plant species.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of adaptive strategies in plant naturalization

et al. 2018

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“…The utility of such generalizations is particularly critical in applied ecology where we are looking for general guidelines to inform the management of populations of species (Gurevitch et al. , Elliott‐Graves ). There is an increasing trend toward using demographic modeling for population management at the species level and above (e.g., groups of species possessing common life‐history traits; e.g., Salguero‐Gómez et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The search for generalizations in the face of complex species-environment interactions has long been a goal of ecology to improve understanding, prediction, and management (Cooper 1998, Ghilarov 2001, Elliott-Graves 2016. The utility of such generalizations is particularly critical in applied ecology where we are looking for general guidelines to inform the management of populations of species (Gurevitch et al 2001, Elliott-Graves 2016. There is an increasing trend toward using demographic modeling for population management at the species level and above (e.g., groups of species possessing common lifehistory traits; e.g., Salguero-G omez et al 2015Salguero-G omez et al , 2016 and papers cited therein).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the limits to species‐wide demographic generalizations: the ecology and management of Parkinsonia aculeata

2019

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The search for generalizations in the face of complex species–environment interactions is particularly important for minimizing the cost of managing populations of species. We tested whether we could generalize, at various nested scales, the species‐level demography of the widely invasive plant species Parkinsonia aculeata (Fabaceae) and whether these generalizations were representative of the demography observed locally. Full demographic surveys at all life stages of the species were conducted in 23 Australian sites during seven years (from 2000 to 2007), across a 1000‐km climatic gradient. Sites were nested across four climate regions (arid, semi‐arid, semi‐wet/dry tropics, wet/dry tropics) and three habitat types (upland, wetland, and riparian). We estimated the vital rates (growth/retrogression, survival, fecundity) at all life stages and size classes and combined them to create 99 site–year demographic matrix population models. With these models, we then estimated site–year‐specific asymptotic population growth rates and their corresponding prospective elasticity values to perturbation of the vital rates. We then developed a nested retrospective elasticity analysis (nested LTRE) to test whether and how upscaling the results (i.e., from site to habitat, to climate region, and to the invaded range) produced averaging bias, which could lead to spurious interpretations of the relationships between the retrospective elasticity values. The prospective analysis highlighted that site–year variation in the matrix population models, population growth rates, and corresponding elasticities could not be well summarized by a single species‐level analysis and that the spread was as diverse as found in previously reported multispecies‐level demographic analyses. The nested LTRE analysis showed that upscaling demographic models introduced for most sites new sources of errors in the estimation (in terms of magnitude and sign of retrospective elasticities), which increased drastically as we progressively aggregate the demographic information between nested scales of observation. Our findings suggest that regardless of the scale, demographic generalizations at the species scale are not always useful for managing P. aculeata across sites in its invaded range, given its plasticity in demography.

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“…Specific invasions are often idiosyncratic and thus must be studied in detail (Elliott‐Graves ). Recognizing that any “rules” associated with biological invasions are inductively derived and have many possible exceptions, we organized a week‐long workshop to explore approaches to explain and predict invasive species’ impacts.…”

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confidence: 99%