The Propensity Interpretation of Probability: A Re-evaluation

Berkovitz, Joseph

doi:10.1007/s10670-014-9716-8

Cited by 17 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…In this view, probability is a measure of the possibility of a random event to happen (e.g., to transition from one state to another). Thus, realist probability (a) is tied to the objective reality of chance, (b) concerns single random events, and (c) is the interpretation used in the more advanced sciences (Berkovitz, 2015;Bunge, 1967;Popper, 1959). In fact, randomness is what justifies the use of probability in the mature sciences, such as atomic physics and genetics, and it is why stochastic models, and not classical deterministic models, are employed in in these sciences (Bunge, 1985).…”

Section: The Probability Assumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scientific realism and the issue of variability in behavior

Arocha

2020

Theory & Psychology

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The purpose of this article is to present a critical analysis of current research practices in the study of behavior from the point of view of scientific realism. Although the so-called “replication crisis” observed in the psychological and health sciences has led to various proposals for improving research quality, most of those proposals take the standard linear input–output approach for granted, where behavioral variability is seen as the result of uncontrolled random variables hiding the true input–output relations. Aggregate data and the computation of sample statistics are used to estimate population parameters, the true reality behind appearances. In this paper, I offer a different interpretation: variability is a fact of behavior necessary for successful performance, not the result of some unknown variables randomly affecting individual outputs. Research models that take individual behavior with all of its complexity as the real thing, can help us overcome the limitations of the standard approach to research. As an illustration, I also describe two approaches to behavioral investigations that do not rely on standard statistical analysis for producing genuine knowledge: perceptual control theory and observation-oriented modeling.

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Section: The Probability Assumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scientific realism and the issue of variability in behavior

Arocha

2020

Theory & Psychology

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“…The students base on the device physical characteristics, such as the drawing pin head weight (item 1) or the player's accuracy in shooting at the basket (item 4). Underlying this type of justification is the conception of probability described by Peirce (1932) as the propensity of the device or experiment to produce a specific outcome (see also Berkovitz, 2015 andSuárez, 2020).…”

Section: Physical Propertiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prospective secondary school teachers’ knowledge of sampling distribution properties

Begué

Batanero

Gea

et al. 2023

EURASIA J Math Sci Tech Ed

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The aim of the work was to assess prospective Spanish secondary school mathematics teachers’ knowledge of sampling representativeness and variability. To achieve this goal, a questionnaire with four items taken from our previous research with secondary education and high school students was proposed to 66 prospective teachers. In each item, participants were asked to provide four values of a binomial distribution, varying the parameters of the distribution in each item. The analysis of the mean and range of the sample of four values provided by the participants, and its comparison with the theoretically normative and acceptable values of the sampling distribution suggests a good knowledge of the sample representativeness, except for one item and an overestimation of the variability for large values of the number of trials in the binomial distribution. The study of the participants’ arguments serves to identify some reasoning biases related to sampling distribution. The results are better than those obtained with students in our previous studies.

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“…All propensity views attribute a disposition to unpredictable systems which is quantified by objective probabilities attributed to such systems. This disposition is viewed as an aspect of independent reality [106,119]. Some views treat propensity as only a basis for an ontology, to be combined with another approach to probability, either objec-tive [115,120], or epistemic [121].…”

Section: Understanding Probability: Differing Approaches No Consensusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding quantum mechanics: a review and synthesis in precise language

Drummond¹

2019

Open Physics

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This review, of the understanding of quantum mechanics, is broad in scope, and aims to reflect enough of the literature to be representative of the current state of the subject. To enhance clarity, the main findings are presented in the form of a coherent synthesis of the reviewed sources. The review highlights core characteristics of quantum mechanics. One is statistical balance in the collective response of an ensemble of identically prepared systems, to differing measurement types. Another is that states are mathematical terms prescribing probability aspects of future events, relating to an ensemble of systems, in various situations. These characteristics then yield helpful insights on entanglement, measurement, and widely-discussed experiments and analyses. The review concludes by considering how these insights are supported, illustrated and developed by some specific approaches to understanding quantum mechanics. The review uses non-mathematical language precisely (terms defined) and rigorously (consistent meanings), and uses only such language. A theory more descriptive of independent reality than is quantum mechanics may yet be possible. One step in the pursuit of such a theory is to reach greater consensus on how to understand quantum mechanics. This review aims to contribute to achieving that greater consensus, and so to that pursuit.

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The Propensity Interpretation of Probability: A Re-evaluation

Cited by 17 publications

References 70 publications

Scientific realism and the issue of variability in behavior

Scientific realism and the issue of variability in behavior

Prospective secondary school teachers’ knowledge of sampling distribution properties

Understanding quantum mechanics: a review and synthesis in precise language

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