The quasi‐biennial oscillation: Analysis using ERA‐40 data

Pascoe, Charlotte; Gray, Lesley J.; Crooks, Simon A.; Juckes, Martin; Baldwin, Mark P.

doi:10.1029/2004jd004941

Cited by 149 publications

(201 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…cycle forcing with, e.g., QBO and/or ENSO, could be important (e.g. Salby and Callaghan, 2000;Pascoe et al, 2005;Labitzke et al, 2006;Haigh and Roscoe, 2006;2009;Roscoe and Haigh, 2007;Camp and Tung, 2007;Kuroda, 2007;Lu et al, 2009;Calvo and Marsh, 2011;Roy and Haigh, 2011;Matthes et al, 2013). Therefore, we refrain here from judging unambiguously which technique performs better in the detection of the solar responses.…”

Section: Ensemble Yearly Mean Temperature and Zonal Wind Response 10mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the solar cycle forcing itself might influence various atmospheric forcings and processes. Indications of such non-linear interactions have been found in observations and/or models (see for instance : Salby and Callaghan, 2000;Gray et al, 2004;Pascoe et al, 2005;Labitzke et al, 2006;Haigh and Roscoe, 2006;2009;Roscoe and Haigh, 2007;Camp and Tung, 2007;Kuroda, 2007;Lu et al, 2009;Calvo and Marsh;2011, Roy andHaigh, 2011;20 Matthes et al, 2013). However, given the relatively short length of the satellite record there are still large uncertainties surrounding the derived relationships (e.g.…”

Section: Solar Cycle Response Over the Recent Past In The Individual mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

Bednarz¹,

Maycock²,

Telford³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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The 11-year solar cycle forcing is recognised as a potentially important atmospheric forcing; however, there remain uncertainties in characterising the effects of the solar variability on the atmosphere from observations and models. Here we 15 present the first detailed assessment of the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle in the UM-UKCA chemistryclimate model using an ensemble of integrations over the recent past. Comparison of the model simulations is made with observations and reanalysis. Importantly, in contrast to the majority of previous studies of the solar cycle impacts, we pay particular attention to the role of detection method by comparing the results diagnosed using both a composite and a multiple linear regression method. We show that stratospheric solar responses diagnosed using both techniques largely agree with 20 each other within the associated uncertainties; however, the results show that apparently different signals can be identified by the methods in the troposphere and in the tropical lower stratosphere. Lastly, we focus on the role of internal atmospheric variability on the detection of the 11-year solar responses by comparing the results diagnosed from individual model ensemble members (as opposed to those diagnosed from the full ensemble). We show overall agreement between the ensemble members in the tropical and mid-latitude mid-stratosphere-to-lower-mesosphere, but larger apparent differences at 25 NH high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our results highlight the need for long data sets for confident detection of solar cycle impacts in the atmosphere, as well as for more research on possible interdependence of the solar cycle forcing with other atmospheric forcings and processes (e.g. QBO, ENSO… etc.).Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi

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Section: Ensemble Yearly Mean Temperature and Zonal Wind Response 10mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Solar Cycle Response Over the Recent Past In The Individual mentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

Bednarz¹,

Maycock²,

Telford³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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“…The approach is similar to that first employed by Gray and Ruth (1993), see also Hamilton (1998) and Pascoe et al (2005). At the end of each time-step the increment to the zonal wind is modified in the following way: Fig.…”

Section: 'Baseline?ozone?qbo' Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

et al. 2009

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In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979-2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.

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“…In this extended record, the stalling of the easterlies and the subsequent prolongation of the duration of the westerlies occurred irregularly: under solar min conditions of 1964, 1977 and 1987, but also under solar max conditions of 1967 and 2000. The corresponding time-height cross section of the ERA-40 data is given by Pascoe et al [2005], and no update is available. Figure 2 shows this 40-year record up to 1 hPa in a time-height cross section.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A reexamination of the QBO period modulation by the solar cycle

Fischer

Tung

2008

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] Using the updated Singapore wind from 1953 to 2007 for the lower stratosphere 70-10 hPa, courtesy of Barbara Naujokat of Free University of Berlin, we examine the variation of the period of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) as a function of height and its modulation in time by the 11-year solar cycle. The analysis is supplemented by the ERA-40 reanalysis up to 1 hPa. Previously, it was reported that the descent of the easterly shear zone tends to stall near 30 hPa during solar minimum, leading to a lengthened QBO westerly duration near 44-50 hPa and the reported anticorrelation of the westerly duration and the solar cycle. Using an objective method, continuous wavelet transform (CWT), for the determination of local QBO period, we find that the whole QBO period is almost invariant with respect to height, so that the stalling mechanism affects only the partition of the whole period between easterly and westerly durations. Using this longest data set available for equatorial stratospheric wind, which spans five and half solar cycles (six solar minima), we find that in three solar minima, the QBO period is lengthened, while in the remaining almost three solar cycles, the QBO period is lengthened instead at solar maxima. We suggest that the decadal variation of the QBO period originates in the upper stratosphere, where the solar-ozone radiative influence is strong. The solar modulation of the QBO period is found to be nonstationary; the averaged effect cannot be determined unless the data record is much longer. In shorter records, the correlation can change sign, as we have found in segments of the longest record available, with or without lag.

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The quasi‐biennial oscillation: Analysis using ERA‐40 data

Cited by 149 publications

References 36 publications

Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

A reexamination of the QBO period modulation by the solar cycle

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