The Rationality of Economic Voting Revisited

Voting and the Macroeconomy

“…Moreover, Stigler yet again was the first to connect instability of economic voting regression results to variation in the "powers or responsibilities" of the incumbent partr'-an important researchtheme that did not receive systematic empirical attention until a generation AsI pointed out before, higher-order moving average processes also would generate damped magnitudes and oscillation of signs of coefficients for the lagged competence terms. 18 Suzuki and Chappell 1996 investigated what they regarded as a rational prospective model of aggregateUS voting outcomes. They applied various time series procedures to disentangle the permanent component of real GNP growth rates from the transitory component, and found some evidencethat election year growth in the permanent component had more effect on aggregate voting outcomes than fluctuations in the transitory component.…”

Political Science and Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models

“…Step 1: Relating Behavioral and Applied Statistical Concepts: Expectations, Uncertainty, and Measurement Error Starting with Kramer (1983) and continuing with work that includes (but is not limited to) Alesina and Rosenthal (1995), Suzuki andChappell (1996), andLin (1999), there is a substantial quantitative literature on how the economy affects voting behavior. For our purposes we demonstrate how the combined work of Alesina and Rosenthal and Suzuki and Chappell have in their own way contributed constituent parts to the study of economic voting.…”

Voto económico con incertidumbre. El caso de Chile

“…En este ámbito de la decisión, Mackuen, Erikson y Stimson (1992), distinguieron dos tipos de votantes: los "campesinos", que se caracterizan por ser miopes y retrospectivos a la hora de adoptar su decisión electoral; y los "banqueros", que siguen el guión marcado por el modelo de las expectativas racionales y, por tanto, son prospectivos. Por el contario, Dorussen y Palmer (2002) diferencian entre electores poco y muy sofisticados: los primeros tienen un escaso interés por la política económica, poco conocimiento de la economía nacional (Suzuki, 1991) y utilizan la evaluación retrospectiva como un "atajo" informativo que les ayuda a decidir su voto; sin embargo, los muy sofisticados utilizan la evaluación retrospectiva para formarse expectativas acerca del futuro de la economía del país.…”