The regional distribution of mountain permafrost in Iceland

Etzelmüller, Bernd; Farbrot, H.; Guðmundsson, Ágúst; Humlum, Ole; Tveito, Ole Einar; Björnsson, Helgi

doi:10.1002/ppp.583

Cited by 114 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Consequently, ground surface temperature would not reach an end-of-winter equilibrium. This behavior has been observed in Iceland (Etzelmueller et al, 2007), preventing the use of BTS or data logger derived winter equilibrium temperatures for permafrost prospecting in the Icelandic mountains.…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 98%

Estimating Permafrost Distribution in the Maritime Southern Alps, New Zealand, Based on Climatic Conditions at Rock Glacier Sites

et al. 2016

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Alpine permafrost occurrence in maritime climates has received little attention, despite suggestions that permafrost may occur at lower elevations than in continental climates. To assess the spatial and altitudinal limits of permafrost in the maritime Southern Alps, we developed and tested a catchment-scale distributed permafrost estimate. We used logistic regression to identify the relationship between permafrost presence at 280 active and relict rock glacier sites and the independent variables (a) mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and (b) potential incoming solar radiation in snow free months. The statistical relationships were subsequently employed to calculate the spatially-distributed probability of permafrost occurrence, using a probability of ≥ 0.6 to delineate the potential permafrost extent. Our results suggest that topoclimatic conditions are favorable for permafrost occurrence in debris-mantled slopes above ∼2000 m above sea level (asl) in the central Southern Alps and above ∼2150 m asl in the more northern Kaikoura ranges. Considering the well-recognized latitudinal influence on global permafrost occurrences, these altitudinal limits are lower than the limits observed in other mountain regions. We argue that the Southern Alps' lower distribution limits may exemplify an oceanic influence on global permafrost distribution. Reduced ice-loss due to moderate maritime summer temperature extremes may facilitate the existence of permafrost at lower altitudes than in continental regions at similar latitude. Empirical permafrost distribution models derived in continental climates may consequently be of limited applicability in maritime settings.

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Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 98%

Estimating Permafrost Distribution in the Maritime Southern Alps, New Zealand, Based on Climatic Conditions at Rock Glacier Sites

et al. 2016

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“…The large spatial heterogeneity of parameters that strongly influence permafrost distribution such as snow cover, surface cover and ground parameters were not considered in these estimations, as recently documented by Gubler et al (2011) for sites in Switzerland and Etzelmüller et al (2007) in Iceland. Therefore, a simple point-to-area extrapolation is problematic.…”

Section: Altitudinal Changes Of Mountain Permafrost During the Modellmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling borehole temperatures in Southern Norway – insights into permafrost dynamics during the 20th and 21st century

et al. 2012

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Abstract. This study aims at quantifying the thermal response of mountain permafrost in southern Norway to changes in climate since 1860 and until 2100. A transient one-dimensional heat flow model was used to simulate ground temperatures and associated active layer thicknesses for nine borehole locations, which are located at different elevations and in substrates with different thermal properties. The model was forced by reconstructed air temperatures starting from 1860, which approximately coincides with the end of the Little Ice Age in the region. The impact of climate warming on mountain permafrost to 2100 is assessed by using downscaled air temperatures from a multi-model ensemble for the A1B scenario. Borehole records over three consecutive years of ground temperatures, air temperatures and snow cover data served for model calibration and validation. With an increase of air temperature of ∼1.5 • C over 1860-2010 and an additional warming of ∼2.8 • C until 2100, we simulate the evolution of ground temperatures for each borehole location. In 1860 the lower limit of permafrost was estimated to be ca. 200 m lower than observed today. According to the model, since the approximate end of the Little Ice Age, the active-layer thickness has increased by 0.5-5 m and >10 m for the sites Juvvasshøe and Tron, respectively. The most pronounced increases in active layer thickness were modelled for the last two decades since 1990 with increase rates of +2 cm yr −1 to +87 cm yr −1 (20-430 %). According to the A1B climate scenario, degradation of mountain permafrost is suggested to occur throughout the 21st century at most of the sites below ca. 1800 m a.s.l. At the highest locations at 1900 m a.s.l., permafrost degradation is likely to occur with a probability of 55-75 % by 2100. This implies that mountain permafrost in southern Norway is likely to be confined to the highest peaks in the western part of the country. Background and objectivesPermafrost in general and mountain permafrost in particular experiences increasing interest due to its sensitivity to climate variation and importance for geomorphologic and geotechnical processes (Harris et al., 2009), such as slope stability and natural hazards (Gude and Barsch, 2005;Huggel et al., 2010; Gruber et al., 2004a;Fischer et al., 2006;Haeberli, 1992). There is a need to address the response of ground temperatures (GT) to climate forcing, especially the modulation of the response of GTs to the effect of snow cover and different types of surficial material and bedrock.This study aims at the quantification of subsurface warming and changes in active layer thickness (ALT) over a ca. 250 yr period from the approximate end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the mid 19th century to 2100 at three highmountain sites in Southern Norway. Significant warming occurred during that period and is expected to continue. In relation to these changes, we intend to identify the possible zonations of former, present and future permafrost. Finally, we aim to characterise these responses for different...

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“…Modelling strategies are not limited to the European Alps but have been developed for and applied to different mountain regions (e.g. Serrano et al, 2001;Tanarro et al, 2001;Janke, 2004;Lewkowicz and Ednie, 2004;Heggem et al, 2005;Etzelmüller et al, 2007;Lewkowicz and Bonnaventure, 2008;Li et al, 2009;Bonnaventure et al, 2012). Regional permafrost distribution models are typically based on empiricalstatistical relationships and give indications of permafrost distribution, with limited accuracy demands (Harris et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Permafrost distribution in the European Alps: calculation and evaluation of an index map and summary statistics

et al. 2012

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Abstract. The objective of this study is the production of an Alpine Permafrost Index Map (APIM) covering the entire European Alps. A unified statistical model that is based on Alpine-wide permafrost observations is used for debris and bedrock surfaces across the entire Alps. The explanatory variables of the model are mean annual air temperatures, potential incoming solar radiation and precipitation. Offset terms were applied to make model predictions for topographic and geomorphic conditions that differ from the terrain features used for model fitting. These offsets are based on literature review and involve some degree of subjective choice during model building. The assessment of the APIM is challenging because limited independent test data are available for comparison and these observations represent point information in a spatially highly variable topography. The APIM provides an index that describes the spatial distribution of permafrost and comes together with an interpretation key that helps to assess map uncertainties and to relate map contents to their actual expression in the terrain. The map can be used as a first resource to estimate permafrost conditions at any given location in the European Alps in a variety of contexts such as research and spatial planning.Results show that Switzerland likely is the country with the largest permafrost area in the Alps, followed by Italy, Austria, France and Germany. Slovenia and Liechtenstein may have marginal permafrost areas. In all countries the permafrost area is expected to be larger than the glacier-covered area.

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The regional distribution of mountain permafrost in Iceland

Cited by 114 publications

References 41 publications

Estimating Permafrost Distribution in the Maritime Southern Alps, New Zealand, Based on Climatic Conditions at Rock Glacier Sites

Estimating Permafrost Distribution in the Maritime Southern Alps, New Zealand, Based on Climatic Conditions at Rock Glacier Sites

Modelling borehole temperatures in Southern Norway – insights into permafrost dynamics during the 20th and 21st century

Permafrost distribution in the European Alps: calculation and evaluation of an index map and summary statistics

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