The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19

Abstract

This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, finds stability by striking a certain balance between relative humidity and temperature, which indicates the possibility of surface contact transmission. The question remains whether seasonal changes associated with climatic fluctuations might actively influence virus survival. Correlations between climatic variables and infectivity rates of SARS-CoV-2 were applied by the use of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and the Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing LOESS nonparametric model. Tropical climates allow for more frequent outdoor human interaction, making such areas ideal for studies on the natural transmission of the virus. Outcomes revealed an inverse relationship between subtropical and tropical climates for the spread of the novel coronavirus and temperature, suggesting a sensitivity behavior to climates zones. Each 1 °C rise of the daily temperature mean correlated with a −11.76% (t = −5.71, p < 0.0001) decrease and a 5.66% (t = 5.68, p < 0.0001) increase in the incidence of COVID-19 for subtropical and tropical climates, respectively.

Recurring Spatiotemporal Patterns of COVID-19 in the United States

“…The overall wave structure suggests a bimodal relation between weather and cases in the southern states. Although complex, such a pattern has been seen in other studies (5). However, establishing a direct causal link between weather and COVID-19 incidence is challenging.…”

Distinct weather conditions and human mobility impacts on the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Colombia: Application of an artificial neural network approach

“…This conclusion is supported by other authors as Raines et al (2020) , who also identified in CAR a considerable increment of NDC in quarantine that was correlated with a RH above 78%. Likewise, Prata et al (2021) found in Brazil that each 1% rise of the daily RH is associated with increments in COVID-19 cases of 2.26% in tropical regions and 2.35% in subtropical regions.…”

“…Colombia is an equatorial country dominated by tropical conditions with climatic variations connected to elevation differences across its territory ( Raines et al, 2020 ). This makes it an ideal place to study the spread of SARS- CoV-2, since the behaviour of the virus under warm climates is still debatable and the country is one of the worst affected countries worldwide ( He et al, 2021 ; Islam et al, 2020 , Islam et al, 2020 ; Prata et al, 2021 ). From July 2020 to January 2021, Colombia was positioned within the 11 countries with the most confirmed cases in the world according to Johns Hopkins University; in September, the country reached the 5th position (Johns Hopkins, 2021 ).…”

Lower COVID‐19 Incidence in Low‐Continentality West‐Coast Areas of Europe

“…The incidence varies across and within countries. The discussed possible reasons for this variety are manifold, such as vaccination rate, the possibility and willingness to distance keeping, social factors, access to healthcare and others (Bendavid et al., 2021; Brauner et al., 2021; Choi et al., 2021; Haas et al., 2021; Loomba et al., 2021; Prata et al., 2021), and socio‐economic factors (Buja et al., 2020; Ehlert, 2021). We look at the overall main pattern that shows a lot of “noise” because of these factors.…”