The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy

Cazzola, Alberto; Pasquini, Lucia; Angeli, Aurora

doi:10.4054/demres.2016.34.1

Cited by 60 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Recent studies have provided evidence of a sign shift in the once negative correlation between prosperity and fertility rates (Ciganda, ): fertility now has been shown to be procyclical and often rises and declines with business cycle ups and downs (Cherlin et al, ). Mechanisms through which recessions may influence fertility behaviour include the effects of economic uncertainty (Hofmann & Hohmeyer, ), job instability and displacement (Modena, Rondinelli, & Sabatini, ; Del Bono, Weber, & Winter‐Ebmer, ), unemployment (Vignoli, Drefahl, & De Santis, ; Tragaki & Bagavos, ; Cazzola, Pasquini, & Angeli, ), changes in the housing market and mortgage foreclosures (Schneider, ), and factors that influence fertility indirectly such as marriage postponement (Goldstein et al, ) or declining marriage rates (Caltabiano, Castiglioni, & Rosina, ; Kreyenfeld et al, ; Lee & Painter, ).…”

Section: Economic Crisis and Short‐term Demographic Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mechanisms through which recessions may influence fertility behaviour include the effects of economic uncertainty (Hofmann & Hohmeyer, 2013), job instability and displacement (Modena, Rondinelli, & Sabatini, 2014;Del Bono, Weber, & Winter-Ebmer, 2015), unemployment (Vignoli, Drefahl, & De Santis, 2012;Tragaki & Bagavos, 2014;Cazzola, Pasquini, & Angeli, 2016), changes in the housing market and mortgage foreclosures (Schneider, 2015), and factors that influence fertility indirectly such as marriage postponement (Goldstein et al, 2013) or declining marriage rates (Caltabiano, Castiglioni, & Rosina, 2009;Kreyenfeld et al, 2012;Lee & Painter, 2013).…”

Section: Economic Crisis and Short-term Demographic Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Urban growth, population, and recession: Unveiling multiple spatial patterns of demographic indicators in a Mediterranean City

Salvati

Carlucci

2017

Population Space and Place

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Recessions have traditionally influenced population dynamics, leading to increasing social disparities and a polarised distribution of economic activities. This study identifies differences in short‐term demographic trends before and during the 2007 recession in a metropolitan area of southern Europe. Using vital statistics, indicators were calculated over two distinct time intervals representative of expansion (2000–2007) and recession (2008–2014) waves in Athens, Greece, at the spatial scale of municipalities. Local‐scale changes in population dynamics were considered key indicators to evaluate the crisis' impact on recent urban transformations. Demographic polarisations in urban and rural areas have progressively increased the gap between wealthy and economically disadvantaged districts. In Athens, short‐term population dynamics were influenced by a combination of socioeconomic factors and processes acting at different spatial scales due to suburbanisation, recession, and demographic transition. As a result, the use of nonlinear analysis proves to be a useful tool to investigate urban systems in their complexity and supports the debate over the future development of contemporary cities.

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Section: Economic Crisis and Short‐term Demographic Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Economic Crisis and Short-term Demographic Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban growth, population, and recession: Unveiling multiple spatial patterns of demographic indicators in a Mediterranean City

Salvati

Carlucci

2017

Population Space and Place

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“…As developing regions undergo population growth during some periods and “shrinkage” during others, we can assume that economic expansion and recession have impacts on demographic trends at both local and regional scales (Goldstein, Kreyenfeld, Jasilioniene, & Örsal, ; Hofmann & Hohmeyer, ; Lee & Painter, ; McCann, ). Mechanisms through which economic downturns may influence demographic dynamics include the direct and indirect effects of economic uncertainty (Kreyenfeld, Andersson, & Pailhé, ), job instability and displacement (Modena, Rondinelli, & Sabatini, ), residential mobility due to unemployment among native and migrant populations (Cazzola, Pasquini, & Angeli, ; Tragaki & Bagavos, ; Vignoli, Drefahl, & De Santis, ), changes in the housing market and mortgage foreclosures (Schneider, ), increased mortality (including suicide deaths; Luo, Florence, Quispe‐Agnoli, Ouyang, & Crosby, ; Lusardi, Schneider, & Tufano, ; Stuckler et al, ), marriage postponement (Goldstein et al, ) and a decline in marriage rates (Caltabiano et al, ; Kulu, Boyle, & Anderson, ; Lee & Painter, ), and childbearing propensity (Pison, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impact of the recent great recession on socioeconomic patterns and processes, particularly evident in Mediterranean Europe, was mainly studied using microscale analysis of specific local cases (Cazzola et al, 2016;Gavalas et al, 2014;Simou & Koutsogeorgou, 2014). Thanks to the contributing effect of specific demographic trends (e.g.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Bridging the divide: Demographic dynamics and urban–rural polarities during economic expansion and recession in Greece

Salvati

2019

Population Space and Place

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Demographic processes such as international migration, internal rural–urban movements, and short‐range residential mobility are increasingly driven by economic cycles. To assess how economic downturns have influenced demographic dynamics across regions in Greece—perhaps the European country most affected by the 2007 recession—the present study investigates spatial patterns of population increase and decline (2002–2017) in 51 prefectures, evaluating the contribution of natural balance (births minus deaths) and migration to total population growth during economic expansion (2002–2009) and recession (2010–2017). Population increased during economic expansion in semicentral regions with medium‐size urban centres, upper economic functions (university and international airport), and road infrastructures. Although natural balance was positive in almost all prefectures, migration contributed the most to population growth during 2002–2009. A generalised population decline was observed during recession, except in coastal areas specialised in tourism, the only regions still attracting migratory flows and maintaining a slightly positive natural balance. The largest urban areas (Athens, Salonika) experienced the highest rate of population decline, thanks to accelerated emigration and a moderately negative natural balance. Population dynamics during economic expansion contributed to increase a traditional density gap between urban and rural areas. Conversely, population dynamics during recession led to a spatial redistribution of population, reducing the gap between urban areas and rural, tourism‐specialised coastal districts. Evidence in our study supports a need for further investigation into the role of economic downturns in future population redistribution processes, specifically “shrinking” regions.

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“…In an increasingly uncertain social and economic context, some couples might consider a long-term commitment to parenthood unsustainable. Cazzola, Pasquini, and Angeli (2016) investigate the relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy in the period 1995-2012, focusing on the geographical differences in this correlation. The recent increase in male and female unemployment rates seems to be negatively linked to fertility in the northern and central areas of Italy, but the results for the southern regions are ambiguous.…”

Section: Fertility and The Business Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%