The relationship of atmospheric air temperature and dew point temperature to extreme rainfall

Bui, Andrew; Johnson, Fiona; Wasko, Conrad

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab2a26

Cited by 54 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…This is consistent with Bui et al . (2019), who found consistent precipitation scaling with dewpoint temperature at the surface and in various layers above the surface, based on station and radiosonde data in Australia. Overall, we see that, while higher dewpoint temperatures are favourable for heavy and extreme rainfall, they do not represent a sufficient condition for these events.…”

Section: Environmental Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 87%

Heavy versus extreme rainfall events in southeast Australia

Warren

Jakob

Hitchcock

et al. 2021

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Focussing on the major cities of Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne in southeast Australia, this study seeks to determine the environmental factors that distinguish between heavy rainfall events (HREs) and extreme rainfall events (EREs). Using daily rain gauge observations, HREs and EREs are defined for each domain based, respectively, on the 95th and 99th percentiles of wet‐day rainfall for the period 1979–2018. K‐means clustering is applied to mean sea‐level pressure, data from ERA5 to obtain a set of representative large‐scale circulation patterns associated with these events. Composite synoptic maps, mean vertical profiles, and a series of column‐integrated diagnostics are then examined for each cluster and used to compare the environmental characteristics of HREs and EREs. For all three cities, HREs are associated with an upper‐level trough to the west, with large‐scale ascent, positive column water vapour (CWV) anomalies, and strong moisture transport over the analysis domain. For Brisbane and Sydney, the clusters are characterised by a coastal trough/low with moist onshore flow from the Tasman and Coral Seas. For Melbourne, circulation patterns are more distinct, with clusters characterised by a front, a cut‐off low, and an inland trough. Compared with HREs, EREs show a more amplified upper‐level trough, with stronger vertical motion and larger CWV anomalies over the analysis domain. In Brisbane and Sydney, EREs also feature stronger and deeper onshore flow, promoting enhanced moisture transport. A diagnostic termed upward vapour transport, which combines the key ingredients of high CWV and large‐scale ascent, is shown to discriminate well between HREs and EREs in all three domains. In contrast, surface temperature, which is frequently linked to rainfall extremes via Clausius–Clapeyron scaling, shows significant overlap between the different event categories, particularly for Brisbane and Sydney.

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Section: Environmental Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 87%

Heavy versus extreme rainfall events in southeast Australia

Warren

Jakob

Hitchcock

et al. 2021

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Various alternatives to surface dry‐bulb temperature have been proposed. The use of atmospheric temperatures instead of surface temperatures has showed modest improvement (Ali & Mishra, 2017; Bui et al, 2019; Golroudbary et al, 2019). Alternatively, the relationship between atmospheric water vapor has also been examined (Neelin et al, 2009; Roderick et al, 2019; Schiro et al, 2016), resulting in sensitivities more consistent with climate model predictions of future rainfall intensification (Roderick et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resolving Inconsistencies in Extreme Precipitation‐Temperature Sensitivities

Visser

Wasko

Sharma

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Extreme precipitation events are intensifying with increasing temperatures. However, observed extreme precipitation-temperature sensitivities have been found to vary significantly across the globe. Here we show that negative sensitivities found in previous studies are the result of limited consideration of within-day temperature variations due to precipitation. We find that short-duration extreme precipitation can be better described by subdaily atmospheric conditions before the start of storm events, resulting in positive sensitivities with increased consistency with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation across a wide range of climatic regions. Contrary to previous studies that advocate that dew point temperature drives precipitation, dry-bulb temperature is found to be a sufficient descriptor of precipitation variability. We argue that analysis methods for estimating extreme precipitation-temperature sensitivities should account for the strong and prolonged cooling effect of intense precipitation, as well as for the intermittent nature of precipitation. Plain Language Summary Increasing global temperatures are likely to result in the intensification of extreme precipitation events with resultant flooding of great societal concern. Understanding the relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature provides valuable information for the design, operation, and risk assessment of high-hazard infrastructure. However, the observed precipitation-temperature relationship has been found to vary significantly across the globe, with negative relationships found in warmer climatic regions. Using station-based subdaily observations, we show that careful sampling of higher temperatures measured before the start of the storm events can result in positive extreme precipitation-temperature relationships across a wide range of climatic regions. Dry-bulb temperature is found to drive short-duration precipitation extremes, contradicting previous studies promoting dew point temperature as the main driver of precipitation variability. Our results indicate the use of coarser daily-scale observations in previous studies contributed to obtaining negative relationships by limiting consideration for within-day temperature variation caused by the rainfall event itself.

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“…Both tropospheric air temperature and DPT were found to scale positively and closer to the C‐C rate than scaling with SAT (Ali & Mishra, 2017). Atmospheric air temperature and DPT were suggested as suitable nonstationary covariates for the scaling of extreme rainfall (Golroudbary et al, 2019) with DPT performing better than atmospheric air temperature (Bui et al, 2019). Surface DPT measurements taken prior to rainfall events have been used as a scaling covariate to find a 14% per degree dependency, approximately twice that of the C‐C relation (Lenderink et al, 2011), and in general are found to be more likely to result in positive scaling when compared to the use of SAT (Ali et al, 2018; Lenderink & van Meijgaard, 2010; Panthou et al, 2014; Park & Min, 2017; Wasko et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Improved Covariate for Projecting Future Rainfall Extremes?

Roderick

Wasko

Sharma

2020

Water Resources Research

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Projection of extreme rainfall under climate change remains an area of considerable uncertainty. In the absence of geographically consistent simulations of extreme rainfall for the future, alternatives relying on physical relationships between a warmer atmosphere and its moisture carrying capacity are projected, scaling with a known atmospheric covariate. The most common atmospheric covariate adopted is surface air temperature, as it exhibits great consistency across climate model simulations into the future and, as per the Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship, has a well‐established link to atmospheric moisture capacity. However, empirical assessments of this relationship show that it varies with latitude, surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, and other factors, suggesting there may be more stable “global” atmospheric covariates that could be used instead. We argue that a better‐suited covariate would be one that captures the relationship between extreme rainfall and temperature but exhibits greater consistency in the relationship across regions as well as climatic zones. Our analysis identifies plausible atmospheric indicators of changes to future extreme rainfall, which now proliferate literature and compare their suitability based on the variability they exhibit across multiple geographical, topographic, and climatic zones within Australia. It is shown that surface air temperature exhibits a regionally inconsistent relationship with extreme rainfall and hence is not suitable for projecting to future conditions. The study identified integrated water vapor and surface dew point temperature as promising alternatives, with the former showing greater consistency in space but at the cost of reduced temporal coverage.

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The relationship of atmospheric air temperature and dew point temperature to extreme rainfall

Cited by 54 publications

References 50 publications

Heavy versus extreme rainfall events in southeast Australia

Heavy versus extreme rainfall events in southeast Australia

Resolving Inconsistencies in Extreme Precipitation‐Temperature Sensitivities

An Improved Covariate for Projecting Future Rainfall Extremes?

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