The relative age effect and success in German elite U-17 soccer teams

Abstract

The aim of the study was to determine whether there is empirical evidence for advantages in performance of soccer teams because of their relative age. The practice of selecting youth players according to their momentary performance leads to relative age effects, which in turn lead to inefficient talent selection. We used the median of the birth dates as a measure of the effect size of the relative age effect and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to assess its significance. For the 2008-2009 season, birth dates in the three German U-17 first leagues for soccer were examined (911 players). More than half of the 41 teams differed significantly from the distribution of the corresponding German cohort. There was a significant correlation between the relative age effect and success defined by teams' final rankings (Spearman's ρ = 0.328, P = 0.036). Regression analyses revealed that with a median of birth dates one month earlier the team is expected to finish 1.035 ranks better. Accordingly, selecting early born athletes is an important aspect of success in youth soccer. However, teams with no relative age effect are able to compete in the league, having the benefit to promote players with a better perspective for long and successful careers at an adult age.

Relative age effects in Australian Football League National Draftees

“…This may require a shift from current thinking in underage representative team selection policy, where the emphasis is commonly placed on immediate success. Indeed, it has been reported that success in elite youth competitions is related to the relative age of the playing squad (Augste & Lames, 2011). Therefore, in the interests of momentary success in underage competitions, physically developed players may be selected preferentially to more talented but less mature players.…”

“…Therefore, in the interests of momentary success in underage competitions, physically developed players may be selected preferentially to more talented but less mature players. It has been suggested that elite junior teams should focus on developing quality players for long and successful senior playing careers rather than seeking short-term success in underage competitions (Augste & Lames, 2011). Second, AFL recruitment managers should consider the relative maturity of the player when assessing a draft prospect's ability and potential, particularly with respect to their physical capabilities.…”

Efeito da idade relativa e sua relação com as características morfológicas e de desempenho em jovens futebolistas.

“…According to some authors 13,15 differences in the distribution of birth dates for specific position do not seem to be evident in young soccer players. However 25 , significant differences (U15 to U21) among goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders and forwarders were identified.…”

“…The distribution of players (U11 to U18) grouped into three groups was also analyzed 15 6 were found for category U16 (Q1 = 48.96%, Q4 = 7.64%, p≤.01), when analyzing the distribution of birth dates of national teams U16, U18 and U21 participants in the 1999-2000 season of UEFA competitions.…”

“…Soccer, like ice hockey, is among the most popular sports around the world featuring a high prevalence of RAE 1 . In soccer, RAE is observed in both adult [9][10][11][12][13] and young players [13][14][15][16][17] . RAE appears to be more pronounced in elite sports 18 , probably by the need to select the best players to compete internationally.…”