The remarkable improvements in survival at older ages

Abstract

The belief that old–age mortality is intractable remains deeply held by many people. Remarkable progress, however, has been made since 1950, and especially since 1970, in substantially improving survival at older ages, even the most advanced ages. The pace of mortality improvement at older ages continues to be particularly rapid in Japan, even though mortality levels in Japan are lower than elsewhere. The progress in improving survival has accelerated the growth of the population of older people and has advanced the frontier of human survival substantially beyond the extremes of longevity attained in pre–industrial times. Little, however, is known about why mortality among the oldest–old has been so plastic since 1950. The little that is known has largely been learned within the past few years. New findings, especially concerning genetic factors that influence longevity, are emerging at accelerating rate.

The aging baboon: Comparative demography in a non-human primate

“…The Gompertz rate of adult mortality change (␥) was relatively homogenous among the three baboon populations (Table 1). A somewhat slower rate occurred in SFBR relative to Gombe ( 1 2 ϭ 7.60, P ϭ 0.006); no other comparisons of this parameter supported significantly different values (SFBR relative to Amboseli, 1 2 ϭ 2.46, P ϭ 0.12; Gombe relative to Amboseli, 1 2 ϭ 0.58, P ϭ 0.45). In contrast, the magnitude of the Gompertz baseline mortality parameter, , varied markedly among populations.…”

“…In contrast, the magnitude of the Gompertz baseline mortality parameter, , varied markedly among populations. Amboseli had the highest level of initial adult mortality (Amboseli relative to SFBR, 1 2 ϭ 3.72; P ϭ 0.05; Amboseli relative to Gombe, 1 2 ϭ 9.06, P ϭ 0.003). SFBR had an intermediate level of initial adult mortality; the lowest value was for Gombe (SFBR relative to Gombe, 1 2 ϭ 5.38, P ϭ 0.02).…”

“…This longevity arises from reduced mortality throughout life, including among the oldest old (1). These well documented changes raise questions central to the evolutionary theory of senescence and to public policy.…”

Health status and 6 years survival of 552 90+ Italian sib-ships recruited within the EU Project GEHA (GEnetics of Healthy Ageing)

“…Due to the decreased mortality in people over 80 (Kannisto 1994a;Kannisto et al 1994), life expectancy dramatically increased in Europe (Vaupel 1997(Vaupel , 2010Leon 2011) since about 1950, leading to a progressive raise of the oldest old (i.e. octogenarians, nonagenarians and centenarians).…”

Human capital formation and macroeconomic performance in an ageing small open economy

“…For example, in the Netherlands, life expectancy at birth rose from 71.5 years in 1950 to 78.5 years in 2000, whilst the annual (crude) birth rate fell from 2.3% to 1.3% of the population. Because infant mortality stayed relatively constant during that period (at 0.8% of the population), the increase in longevity must be attributed to reduced adult mortality (Vaupel, 1997). A similar demographic pattern can be observed for most OECD countries.…”