The research and development process for multiscale models of infectious disease systems

Garira, Winston

doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007734

Cited by 20 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The subsystems are decomposed into levels and then into scales. Therefore, to describe the phenomenon of infectious disease both in time and in space, it needs to define a model, where infectious disease systems are identified as multilevel and multiscale systems [ 5 , 6 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

RETRACTED: Rationale and Criteria for a COVID-19 Model Framework

Messina

Montaldo

Abbate

et al. 2021

Viruses

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Complex systems are inherently multilevel and multiscale systems. The infectious disease system is considered a complex system resulting from the interaction between three sub-systems (host, pathogen, and environment) organized into a hierarchical structure, ranging from the cellular to the macro-ecosystem level, with multiscales. Therefore, to describe infectious disease phenomena that change through time and space and at different scales, we built a model framework where infectious disease must be considered the set of biological responses of human hosts to pathogens, with biological pathways shared with other pathologies in an ecological interaction context. In this paper, we aimed to design a framework for building a disease model for COVID-19 based on current literature evidence. The model was set up by identifying the molecular pathophysiology related to the COVID-19 phenotypes, collecting the mechanistic knowledge scattered across scientific literature and bioinformatic databases, and integrating it using a logical/conceptual model systems biology. The model framework building process began from the results of a domain-based literature review regarding a multiomics approach to COVID-19. This evidence allowed us to define a framework of COVID-19 conceptual model and to report all concepts in a multilevel and multiscale structure. The same interdisciplinary working groups that carried out the scoping review were involved. The conclusive result is a conceptual method to design multiscale models of infectious diseases. The methodology, applied in this paper, is a set of partially ordered research and development activities that result in a COVID-19 multiscale model.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

RETRACTED: Rationale and Criteria for a COVID-19 Model Framework

Messina

Montaldo

Abbate

et al. 2021

Viruses

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Rate at which viruses enter inside susceptible body day −1 and start their internal replication Assume that the initial condition is taken in Ω. Using Cauchy-Lipschitz Theorem there exists a maximal solution of the system (21). Assume that the solution is defined and remains nonnegative on a set [0,…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation and optimal control of the multi-scale dynamics of the Covid-19

Fotsa-Mbogne

Tchoumi

Kouakep

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This work aims at a better understanding and the optimal control of the spread of the new severe acute respiratory corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We first propose a multi-scale model giving insights on the virus population dynamics, the transmission process and the infection mechanism. We consider 10 compartments in the human population in order to take into accounts the effects of different specific mitigation policies. The population of viruses is also partitioned into 10 compartments corresponding respectively to each of the first nine human population compartments and the free viruses available in the environment. We show the global stability of the disease free equilibrium if a given threshold T_0 is less or equal to 1 and we provide how to compute the basic reproduction number R_0. A convergence index T_1 is also defined in order to estimate the speed at which the disease extincts and an upper bound to the time of extinction is given. The existence of the endemic equilibrium is conditional and its description is provided. We evaluate the sensitivity of R_0, T_0 and T_1 to control parameters such as the maximal human density allowed per unit of surface, the rate of disinfection both for people and environment, the mobility probability, the wearing mask probability or efficiency, and the human to human contact rate which results from the previous one. According to a functional cost taking into consideration economic impacts of SARS-CoV-2, we determine and discuss optimal fighting strategies. The study is applied to available data from Cameroon.

show abstract

“…Assume that the initial condition is taken in Ω. Using Cauchy-Lipschitz Theorem there exists a maximal solution of the system (21). Assume that the solution is defined and remains nonnegative on a set [0, T f ].…”

Section: B Proofs Of Different Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Proof of Theorem 2.2. The proof is based on the quasilinear form of the model (21). Indeed, the model ( 21) can be rewritten as  almost surely only one process in the tuple jumps at a given time.…”

Section: B Proofs Of Different Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This consideration justifies the regular disinfection of individuals and the environment as recommended by public health agencies. Following the authors in [19,20,21,22,23,43], it is important to build and understand models that link the within-host dynamics and population level dynamics of infectious. The prediction of the behavior of Covid-19 is very difficult because mitigation strategies are permanently changing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Estimation and optimal control of the multi-scale dynamics of the Covid-19

Fotsa-Mbogne

Kouakep

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This work aims at a better understanding and the optimal control of the spread of the new severe acute respiratory corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We first propose a multi-scale model giving insights on the virus population dynamics, the transmission process and the infection mechanism. We consider 10 compartments in the human population in order to take into accounts the effects of different specific mitigation policies. The population of viruses is also partitioned into 10 compartments corresponding respectively to each of the first nine human population compartments and the free viruses available in the environment. We show the global stability of the disease free equilibrium if a given threshold T_0 is less or equal to 1 and we provide how to compute the basic reproduction number R_0. A convergence index T_1 is also defined in order to estimate the speed at which the disease extincts and an upper bound to the time of extinction is given. The existence of the endemic equilibrium is conditional and its description is provided. We evaluate the sensitivity of R_0, T_0 and T_1 to control parameters such as the maximal human density allowed per unit of surface, the rate of disinfection both for people and environment, the mobility probability, the wearing mask probability or efficiency, and the human to human contact rate which results from the previous one. Except the maximal human density allowed per unit of surface, all those parameters have significant effects on the qualitative dynamics of the disease. The most significant is the probability of wearing mask followed by the probability of mobility and the disinfection rate. According to a functional cost taking into consideration economic impacts of SARS-CoV-2, we determine and discuss optimal fighting strategies. The study is applied to real available data from Cameroon and an estimation of model parameters is done. After several simulations, social distancing and the disinfection frequency appear as the main elements of the optimal control strategy.

show abstract

The research and development process for multiscale models of infectious disease systems

Cited by 20 publications

References 28 publications

RETRACTED: Rationale and Criteria for a COVID-19 Model Framework

RETRACTED: Rationale and Criteria for a COVID-19 Model Framework

Estimation and optimal control of the multi-scale dynamics of the Covid-19

Estimation and optimal control of the multi-scale dynamics of the Covid-19

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About