The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate

Abstract

Abstract. Climate and fuel availability jointly control the incidence of wildfires. The effects of atmospheric CO2 on plant growth influence fuel availability independently of climate, but the relative importance of each in driving large-scale changes in wildfire regimes cannot easily be quantified from observations alone. Here, we use previously developed empirical models to simulate the global spatial pattern of burnt area, fire size, and fire intensity for modern and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼ 21 000 ka) conditions using both realistic changes in climate and CO2 and sensitivity experiments to separate their effects. Three different LGM scenarios are used to represent the range of modelled LGM climates. We show large, modelled reductions in burnt area at the LGM compared to the recent period, consistent with the sedimentary charcoal record. This reduction was predominantly driven by the effect of low CO2 on vegetation productivity. The amplitude of the reduction under low-CO2 conditions was similar regardless of the LGM climate scenario and was not observed in any LGM scenario when only climate effects were considered, with one LGM climate scenario showing increased burning under these conditions. Fire intensity showed a similar sensitivity to CO2 across different climates but was also sensitive to changes in vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Modelled fire size was reduced under LGM CO2 in many regions but increased under LGM climates because of changes in wind strength, dry days (DDs), and diurnal temperature range (DTR). This increase was offset under the coldest LGM climate in the northern latitudes because of a large reduction in VPD. These results emphasize the fact that the relative magnitudes of changes in different climate variables influence the wildfire regime and that different aspects of climate change can have opposing effects. The importance of CO2 effects imply that future projections of wildfire must take rising CO2 into account.

Global wildfires on a changing planet

“…GLMs provide interpretable results and due to their simplicity require very little computational power, making them an ideal tool for running a large set of sensitivity experiments and providing a way of quantifying independent effects of multiple predictors even when they are correlated (73) prediction at the low (high) extremes. To account for this and the fact that the fire size and fire intensity models cannot determine whether an ignition occurred, and thus fire occurrence has to be specified as occurring in these models, an ignition threshold (20) was used and applied to all three properties (BA, FI and FS), where grid cell values in which burnt area was lower than a fractional value of 0.0011 were set to 0.…”

“…These models have been shown to capture modern spatial patterns in fire properties (19). In addition, they can simulate the impact of large changes in climate on these fire properties in a realistic way, which other fire models have yet to demonstrate (20).…”

“…Another novel feature of these empirical models is that they make use of vegetation inputs which account for the physiological effect of CO2 on vegetation, independently of climate, providing a way to examine the effect of CO2 fertilization on wildfires separately (20). We used these empirical models to examine the consequences of two scenarios: one where global warming by the end of the century is kept under 2°C and another with a global warming of 3-4°C by 2100 CE, as run by four state-of-the-art Earth System models.…”