The Reverse Coattails Effect: Local Party Organization in the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election

Abstract

Increasingly, it is said that the main determinants of electoral outcomes are class, ethnicity, and religion and that local political organizations occupy only marginal roles in national elections. I assess the effects of local party organizations in the presidential election of 1989 in Brazil. Given the long hiatus in competitive politics, the absence of any parties linked to the country's previous democratic experience, and the weakness of citizen identification with political parties, Brazil should be a textbook example of the collapse of local political organizations. The presidential candidates, however, acted as if party endorsements mattered, and in the context of Brazilian politics, it was rational for municipal mayors to trade blocs of votes for future local benefits. Applying a series of increasingly complex models to the vote shares of the leading candidates, I show that all candidates did significantly better in municipalities where the mayor represented their party. I also show that spatial factors affect the tactics of local politicians, and I distinguish charismatic from purely organizational components of support.

A political agency model of coattail voting

“…The presidential coattail e¤ect, where a congressional voting decision is a¤ected by an executive's performance, has been a topic of frequent study in the empirical literature (see Miller 1955, Press 1958, Kaplowitz 1971, Calvert and Ferejohn 1983, Campbell 1986 candidates for higher levels of government (Ames 1994, Samuels 2000a, Samuels 2000b). 1 While a number of studies have identi…ed and measured coattail e¤ects, "there remains a great deal of uncertainty concerning the causal mechanism responsible for these e¤ects."…”

“…1 While a number of studies have identi…ed and measured coattail e¤ects, "there remains a great deal of uncertainty concerning the causal mechanism responsible for these e¤ects." 2 Mondak and McCurley (1994) suggested that coattail e¤ects arise mainly owing to "voters' reliance on a speci…c cognitive e¢ ciency mechanism" and tested this claim empirically at the individual-voter level. 3 There is, however, no formal model of coattail voting, to the best of my knowledge.…”

“…Broockman (2009), however, found no evidence of reverse coattail e¤ects in congressional district-level data from the US presidential elections between 1952 and 2004. 2 Hogan (2005), p. 587. 3 Mondak and McCurley (1994), p. 151.…”

As eleições para prefeito no Rio de Janeiro: uma análise sobre partidos, coligações e a política subnacional

“…Uma das razões seria Introdução A dinâmica das eleições municipais tem atraído a atenção de muitos pesquisadores preocupados em explicar não apenas a política local, mas sobretudo os impactos destes pleitos em nível nacional. Podemos notar esta abordagem em diversos trabalhos, tais como, Ames (1994), Fleischer (2002) e Samuels (2000). Barry Ames (1994), por exemplo, assinalou que o apoio de prefeitos é fundamental para as campanhas presidenciais.…”

A eficácia do pork barrel: a importância de emendas orçamentárias e prefeitos aliados na eleição de deputados

“…Não por acaso, pesquisadores identificaram várias evidências de articulação partidária entre prefeitos e deputados nas eleições nacionais (Ames, 1994;Bezerra, 2001;Carneiro e Almeida, 2008;Avelino, Biderman e Barone, 2012;Graça e Souza, 2014). Além do mais, municípios são entes federativos autônomos que se relacionam diretamente com a União e recebem a responsabilidade pela execução da maioria das emendas individuais.…”