The rise of compound warm-season droughts in Europe

Markonis, Yannis; Kumar, Rohini; Hanel, Martin; Rakovec, Oldřich; Máca, Petr; AghaKouchak, Amir

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abb9668

Cited by 108 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…These above normal air temperatures revealed to have a compounding effect on drought impacts, contributed to soil moisture-or hydrological-drought development (e.g., Brunner et al, 2021) and could have caused a more rapid intensification of drought conditions also known as "flash droughts" (e.g., Nguyen et al, 2019). The generally increasing air temperatures will exacerbate drought and its impacts and present a challenge for future drought management (Brunner et al, 2021;Markonis et al, 2021;Pendergrass et al, 2020). The type I events studied here might be seen as a precursor of intense warm-climate drought events and their typical impacts.…”

Section: Typical Droughts and Their Hazard And Impact Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics

Tijdeman

Blauhut

Stoelzle

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Droughts often have a severe impact on environment, society, and economy. Only a multifaceted assessment of such droughts and their impacts can provide insights in the variables and scales that are relevant for drought management. Motivated by this aim, we compared hazard and propagation characteristics as well as impacts of major droughts between 1990–2019 in Southwestern Germany. We bring together high-resolution datasets of air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture simulations, streamflow and groundwater level observations, as well as text-based information on drought impacts. Various drought characteristics were derived from the hydrometeorological and drought impact time series and compared across variables and spatial scales. Results revealed different drought types sharing similar hazard and impact characteristics. The most severe drought type identified is an intense multi-seasonal drought type peaking in summer, i.e. the events in 2003, 2015 and 2018. This drought type appeared in all domains of the hydrological cycle and coincided with high air temperatures, causing a high number and variability of drought impacts. The regional average drought signals of this drought type exhibit typical drought propagation characteristics such as a time lag between meteorological and hydrological drought, whereas propagation characteristics of local drought signals are variable in space. This spatial variability in drought hazard increased when droughts propagated through the hydrological cycle, causing distinct differences among variables, and regional average and local drought information. Accordingly, single variable or regional average drought information is considered to be not sufficient to fully explain the variety of drought impacts that occurred. In addition to large-scale drought monitoring, drought management needs to consider local drought information from different hydrometeorological variables and could be type based.

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Section: Typical Droughts and Their Hazard And Impact Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics

Tijdeman

Blauhut

Stoelzle

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…In today's agricultural landscapes in Central Europe and other parts of the world, we face multiple challenges for soil functionality impacting ecosystem services. In the last decades, drought events that empty the soils' water stores causing yield losses are becoming more frequent in Europe (van Hateren et al, 2020;Markonis et al, 2021). Inadequate agricultural management may lead to losses in soil organic carbon to the atmosphere, whereas the opposite can enhance carbon sequestration and, thereby, help to mitigate climate change (Liu et al, 2006;Wiesmeier et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Machine Learning With GA Optimization to Model the Agricultural Soil-Landscape of Germany: An Approach Involving Soil Functional Types With Their Multivariate Parameter Distributions Along the Depth Profile

Ließ

Gebauer

Don

2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Societal demands on soil functionality in agricultural soil-landscapes are confronted with yield losses and environmental impact. Soil functional information at national scale is required to address these challenges. On behalf of the well-known theory that soils and their site-specific characteristics are the product of the interaction of the soil-forming factors, pedometricians seek to model the soil-landscape relationship using machine learning. Following the rationale that similarity in soils is reflected by similarity in landscape characteristics, we defined soil functional types (SFTs) which were projected into space by machine learning. Each SFT is described by a multivariate soil parameter distribution along its depth profile. SFTs were derived by employing multivariate similarity analysis on the dataset of the Agricultural Soil Inventory. Soil profiles were compared on behalf of differing sets of soil properties considering the top 100 and 200 cm, respectively. Various depth weighting coefficients were tested to attribute topsoil properties higher importance. Support vector machine (SVM) models were then trained employing optimization with a distributed multiple-population hybrid Genetic algorithm for parameter tuning. Model training, tuning, and evaluation were implemented in a nested k-fold cross-validation approach to avoid overfitting. With regards to the SFTs, organic soils were differentiated from mineral soils of various particle size distributions being partly influenced by waterlogging and groundwater. Further SFTs reflect soils with a depth limitation within the top 100 cm and high stone content. Altogether, with SVM predictive model accuracies between 0.7 and 0.9, the agricultural soil-landscape of Germany was represented with eight SFTs. Soil functionality with regards to the soil’s capacity to store plant-available water and soil organic carbon is well characterized. Four additional soil functions are described to a certain extent. An extension of the approach to fully cover soil functions such as nutrient cycling, agricultural biomass production, filtering of contaminants, and soil as a habitat for soil biota is possible with the inclusion of additional soil properties. Altogether, the developed data product represents the 3D multivariate soil parameter space. Its agglomerated simplicity into a limited number of spatially allocated process units provides the basis to run agricultural process models at national scale (Germany).

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“…Unlike other disasters, such as floods or earthquakes, drought is a slowly developing phenomenon and often shows persistent consequences even after the drought has ended (Vogt et al., 2011). Furthermore, due to climate change and rising temperatures, droughts are expected to increase in terms of both frequency and duration (Markonis et al., 2021; Spinoni et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014; M. Zhang et al., 2013). Given the severity of impacts on agriculture, health, and ecosystems, it is important to understand drought characteristics under a changing climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Evaluation of Drought in CMIP6 Simulations

et al. 2021

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About half of the Earth's land area is drought prone (Kogan, 1997) and an average of 55 million people around the world are affected by drought every year (Vatter et al., 2019). During 1900-2011, more than 11 million people lost their lives and two billion people were affected by drought (Spinoni et al., 2014). Droughts may further trigger other calamities such as wildfires and heatwaves (LeComte, 2011;Sivakumar, 2005). Unlike other disasters, such as floods or earthquakes, drought is a slowly developing phenomenon and often shows persistent consequences even after the drought has ended (Vogt et al., 2011). Furthermore, due to climate change and rising temperatures, droughts are expected to increase in terms of

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The rise of compound warm-season droughts in Europe

Cited by 108 publications

References 79 publications

Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics

Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics

Machine Learning With GA Optimization to Model the Agricultural Soil-Landscape of Germany: An Approach Involving Soil Functional Types With Their Multivariate Parameter Distributions Along the Depth Profile

Probabilistic Evaluation of Drought in CMIP6 Simulations

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