The rise of the underdog? The relative age effect reversal among Canadian-born NHL hockey players: A reply to Nolan and Howell

Abstract

The relative age effect associated with cut-off dates for hockey eligibility has been an ongoing debate in certain academic circles and in the popular media. The effect is primarily found in Canadian Major Junior Hockey, where a disproportionate share of birthdays fall in the first three months of the year. But when the National Hockey League rosters of Canadian-born players are examined, the pattern is less pronounced. Using publically available data of hockey players from 2000-2009, we find that the relative age effect, as described by Nolan and Howell (2010) and Gladwell (2008), is moderate for the average Canadian National Hockey League player and reverses when examining the most elite professional players (i.e. All-Star and Olympic Team rosters). We also find that the average career duration is longer for players born later in the year. In sum, there is a surprising 'relative age effect reversal' that occurs from the junior leagues to the most elite level of hockey play. This supports an 'underdog' hypothesis, where the relatively younger players are thought to benefit by more competitive play with their older counterparts.

Bio-banding in Sport: Applications to Competition, Talent Identification, and Strength and Conditioning of Youth Athletes

“…December) in their next oldest age group. The observation is seemingly consistent with the 'underdog hypothesis' which suggests that younger and/or later maturing athletes need to be physically, technically, and psychologically 'ahead of the curve' in order to remain competitive within such programs (36). The results also suggest that older and/or early maturing males get by on their physical prowess rather than their technical or tactical abilities.…”

“…It can be argued that the greater challenge associated with being the youngest and/or least mature serves as a stimulus towards superior long term development. This argument was first advanced by Krogman (47) and is embedded in the 'underdog hypothesis' of Gibbs and colleagues (36), which states that those youth who experience the greatest physical challenges are more likely to develop the technical and psychological attributes necessary for success at the adult professional level. The argument only holds, however, if the challenge is manageable and if the athlete is recruited into and/or retained by the system.…”

Biological maturation of youth athletes: assessment and implications

“…This relates to a combination of factors related to catch-up in growth and maturation, motivation and systematic efforts to nurture, perhaps to protect, skilled late maturing athletes during adolescence. It has been suggested that late maturing boys within a CA group may have more athletic potential as young adults due to challenges experienced during adolescence 91. To remain competitive with peers, the late maturing boy compensates for physical disadvantages by developing superior technical and strategic skills and/or a more adaptive, resilient psychological profile.…”

All-Star or Benchwarmer? Relative Age, Cohort Size and Career Success in the NHL

“…When hockey success is defined as the most elite levels of play, the relative age effect reverses [i.e., later born players outperform their early born counterparts]." Gibbs et al (2012) only compare means and do not control for individual confounders such as country and team effects; as such, empirically we feel the jury is still out.…”