The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries

Arntz, Melanie; Gregory, Terry; Zierahn, Ulrich

doi:10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en

Cited by 376 publications

(237 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Studies for other industries have also investigated the effect of robots and automation to the social dimension. Frey and Osborne [28] estimated that around 47% of total US employment has a "high risk of computerization" by the 2030s, while the estimations by Arntz et al [29] were quite a bit lower, only 10%. The findings in [27] are somewhere in between, estimating that 35% of US jobs are in danger of being lost to the robots.…”

Section: Uncertain Impacts On Labor and Workforcementioning

confidence: 98%

“…The findings in [27] are somewhere in between, estimating that 35% of US jobs are in danger of being lost to the robots. Recent debates about the future of jobs have mainly focused on whether or not they are at risk of automation ( [27], [28], [29], [30]). Most studies have minimized the potential effects of automation on job creation, and have tended to ignore other relevant trends, including globalization, population aging, urbanization, and the rise of the green economy [31].…”

Section: Uncertain Impacts On Labor and Workforcementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although some studies and projections are pessimistic about the impacts to labor [28], others give a more optimistic view ( [29], [32]), which is shared by the authors. The creation of new and specialized roles always happens when new technologies are introduced, and it is expected that the same will occur in the construction sector.…”

Section: Uncertain Impacts On Labor and Workforcementioning

confidence: 99%

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Rethinking the roles in the AEC industry to accommodate digital fabrication

Soto¹,

Agustí-Juan²,

Joss³

et al. 2018

Creative Construction Conference 2018 - Proceedings

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As robots and other technologies take over tasks previously performed by construction workers and planners, the concern about the future of jobs and wages will increase. While digital fabrication (dfab), and particularly the use of robotic technology, has the potential to improve productivity, it should not necessarily reduce total employment in the construction sector in the long run. It is expected that existing roles will evolve, mainly related to the human-robot interaction, and new roles will be created (e.g., in addition to designers there would be a need for employees with digital skills). Particular attention should be made to the transition phase in which conflicts may occur between the old and new systems and planning methods. This will occur for different functions and services during the planning and execution of construction projects. Focusing on the construction phase of a concrete wall using additive dfab for the NEST building located in Dübendorf, Switzerland, the different roles were evaluated. From this study, it seems that robotic technologies and conventional construction will coexist next to each other for a while, leading to a higher job variability and the creation of new roles, such as dfab managers to support coordination required, dfab programmers to develop computer numerical control that can be implemented with industrial robots, or dfab technicians to support robotic systems. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty, making it difficult to quantify employment impacts. Therefore, further research is needed to evaluate the impacts of using dfab to the functional division, supply chain and business models of the AEC industry, and to assess additional social impacts, such as changes in education schemes.

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Section: Uncertain Impacts On Labor and Workforcementioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Uncertain Impacts On Labor and Workforcementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Uncertain Impacts On Labor and Workforcementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Rethinking the roles in the AEC industry to accommodate digital fabrication

Soto¹,

Agustí-Juan²,

Joss³

et al. 2018

Creative Construction Conference 2018 - Proceedings

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Sin embargo, no es claro que el desarrollo de las tecnologías reemplace a la misma velocidad algunos puestos de trabajo; al menos, se requerirá un tiempo para ajustarse a las nuevas tecnologías y a las exigencias laborales (Arntz et al, 2016); en cualquier caso, esta cuarta revolución industrial generará desempleo para muchas personas. Así, este fenómeno puede ser enfrentado por medio de la reconversión laboral, la que debería surgir a partir de una política pública y/o de una decisión individual (Beatriz & Argón, 1995).…”

Section: Tecnificación De Los Procesos De Producción Y Reconversiónunclassified

Reconversión laboral del sector agropecuario hacia el turismo. Desafíos para la Patagonia chilena

Mancilla

Ferrada

Seminara

2019

EARN

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RESUMEN: La actividad turística puede ayudar a diversificar la matriz productiva y reducir el despoblamiento rural. Este estudio analiza la posibilidad de participación de trabajadores agropecuarios en el sector turismo en las zonas rurales de la Patagonia Chilena. Usando la encuesta CASEN del año 2017, se realiza un proceso de emparejamiento de datos (matching) y la estimación de un modelo logit para evaluar la probabilidad de reconversión laboral. Los resultados indican que hay una baja proporción de trabajadores que puedan transitar hacia el sector turismo. Sin embargo, las mujeres y los individuos con estudios postsecundarios tienen mayores probabilidades de reconversión. ABSTRACT:The development of tourism can help to diversify the productive matrix and reduce rural depopulation. This study analyzes the possibility of agricultural worker participation in the tourism sector in rural areas of Chilean Patagonia. Based on the 2017 CASEN survey, data matching and estimation of logit model are conducted to evaluate the probability of agricultural worker reconversion. The results indicate that the proportion of agricultural workers who can move to tourism is low. However, women and individuals with post-secondary education are more likely to be reconverted.

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“…A study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn, 2016) (Autor, 2013). The OECD study finds that only 9 percent of jobs in 21 OECD countries are at risk for full automation under this taskbased analysis.…”

Section: Near-to Medium-term Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Risks of Artificial Intelligence to Security and the Future of Work

Osoba¹,

Welser²

2017

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The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries

Cited by 376 publications

References 22 publications

Rethinking the roles in the AEC industry to accommodate digital fabrication

Rethinking the roles in the AEC industry to accommodate digital fabrication

Reconversión laboral del sector agropecuario hacia el turismo. Desafíos para la Patagonia chilena

The Risks of Artificial Intelligence to Security and the Future of Work

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