The role of large—scale BECCS in the pursuit of the 1.5°C target: an Earth system model perspective

Muri, Helene

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab324

Cited by 43 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 48 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Sustainable approaches, including organic and regenerative farming (56), which can support some aspects of biodiversity and contribute to climate change mitigation, can also play a role in wider landuse strategies. Negative emissions technologies, especially biofuels with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), are often included in scenarios for meeting the Paris Agreement commitments, but these technologies create a demand for land (11,57). The benefits of BECCS for mitigation need to be considered alongside the implications for adaptation, biodiversity, and food security and will require careful management and monitoring (58).…”

Section: Conflictsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems

Morecroft

Duffield

Harley³

et al. 2019

Science

134

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Natural and seminatural ecosystems must be at the forefront of efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In the urgency of current circumstances, ecosystem restoration represents a range of available, efficient, and effective solutions to cut net greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Although mitigation success can be measured by monitoring changing fluxes of greenhouse gases, adaptation is more complicated to measure, and reductions in a wide range of risks for biodiversity and people must be evaluated. Progress has been made in the monitoring and evaluation of adaptation and mitigation measures, but more emphasis on testing the effectiveness of proposed strategies is necessary. It is essential to take an integrated view of mitigation, adaptation, biodiversity, and the needs of people, to realize potential synergies and avoid conflict between different objectives.

show abstract

Section: Conflictsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems

Morecroft

Duffield

Harley³

et al. 2019

Science

134

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As the main NET, BECCS has been the subject of several peer-reviewed articles describing what it is, its technoeconomic characterization, and its application in climate scenarios [5,[12][13][14][15][16]. A few articles have attempted to describe its value as a mitigation technology [17][18][19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Value of BECCS in IAMs: a Review

Köberle

2019

Curr Sustainable Renewable Energy Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose of Review Integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios consistent with Paris Agreement targets involve large negative emission technologies (NETs), mostly bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Such reliance on BECCS implies IAMs assign it a high value. Past analyses on the value of BECCS in IAMs have not explicitly addressed the role of model structure and assumptions as value drivers. This paper examines the extent to which the value of BECCS in IAMs is enhanced by model structure constraints and assumptions. Recent Findings Predominant use of high discount rates (3.5-5%) means models opt for delayed-action strategies for emissions mitigation that lead to high levels of cumulative net-negative emissions, while lower discount rates lead to reduce reliance on NETs. Until recently in the literature, most models limited NET options to only BECCS and afforestation, but introduction of other CDR options can reduce BECCS deployment. Constraints on grid penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) is a determining factor on the level of BECCS deployment across models, and more constrained grid penetration of VREs leads to more BECCS in electricity generation. Summary This paper concludes BECCS derives significant value not only from the existing structure of IAMs but also from what is not represented in models and by predominant use of high discount rates. Omissions include NETs other than BECCS and deforestation, low-carbon innovation in end-use technologies, grid resilience to intermittent sources, and energy use in agriculture production. As IAMs increasingly endogenize such constraints, the value of BECCS in resulting scenarios is likely to be dampened.

show abstract

“…Around 20% of China's consumed biomass feedstock in 2050 is shown to rely on import (mainly from Africa, other Asian countries and some OECD countries) in both 2C00 and 15C20. In particular, in deep-negative-emission narrative, where bioenergy is projected to contribute nearly 30% of China's primary energy by 2100, over a third of the consumed bioenergy will need be obtained from international trade by 2100, which in practice might raise major concerns and challenges on resource supply for China further into the 21st century (our modeling and assumptions are comparatively idealized and allow globally comprehensive supply and trade of biomass feedstock), due to trade barriers, geophysical limitations and surrounding constraints (Muri 2018). Large-scale bioenergy also has pronounced impacts on economic costs, food security and biodiversity (Fuss et al 2016, Sanchez and Kammen 2016, Strapasson et al 2017.…”

Section: Comparison Between Consumption and Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of biomass in China’s long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals

Pan

Chen

Wang

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Biomass is a crucial option of substituting fossil fuels to reduce emissions, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) allows for obtaining net-negative emissions. We explore the role of biomass in China's long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals in light of three narratives and five mitigation scenarios, modeling by a refined Global Change Assessment Model. While presenting a limited contribution to achieving China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), biomass plays an important role in China's post-NDC mitigation toward the Paris climate goals. All the assessed scenarios call for extensive biomass use, accounting for 6.5%-28% of China's 2100 primary energy in our three 2°C scenarios and 15%-30% in our two 1.5°C scenarios. The exact biomass deployment trajectories tend to depend greatly on how China envisages national mitigation paces and BECCS strategies. For either 2°C or 1.5°C, a smaller negative-emission narrative, which means a more rapid immediate decarbonization of the energy system toward mid-century, depends on larger bioenergy in medium-to-long-term. Delaying short-and medium-term ambition delays bioenergy applications but requires far more in the second half of the century to create greater negative emissions via BECCS. Moving from 2°C toward 1.5°C features higher and earlier bioenergy deployments and meaningfully increasing BECCS volumes and biofuel shares in China's energy system. Consequently, the Chinese stockholders might be ready to make a decision on to what degree biomass and BECCS enter the sphere of China's energy and climate policies, which will greatly influence not only national biomass roadmap but also mid-century mitigation targets.

show abstract

The role of large—scale BECCS in the pursuit of the 1.5°C target: an Earth system model perspective

Cited by 43 publications

References 48 publications

Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems

Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems

The Value of BECCS in IAMs: a Review

The role of biomass in China’s long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About