The Role of Mathematical Model in Curbing COVID-19 in Nigeria

Abstract

The role of mathematical models in controlling infectious diseases cannot be overemphasized. COVID-19 is a viral disease that is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which has no approved vaccine. The available control measures are non-pharmacological interventions like wearing face masks, social distancing, and lockdown which are being advocated for by the WHO. This work assesses the impact of non-pharmaceutical control measures (social distancing and use of face-masks) and mass testing on the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria. A community-based transmission model for COVID-19 in Nigeria is formulated with observing social distancing, wearing face masks in public and mass testing. The model is parameterized using Nigeria data on COVID-19 in Nigeria. The basic reproduction number is found to be less than unity( R_0<1) when the compliance with intervention measures is moderate (50%≤α<70%) and the testing rate per day is moderate (0.5≤σ_2<0.7) or when the compliance with intervention measures is strict (α≥70%) and the testing rate per day is poor (σ_2=0.3). This implies that Nigeria will be able to halt the spread of COVID-19 under these two conditions. However, it will be easier to enforce strict compliance with intervention measures in the presence of poor testing rate due to the limited availability of testing facilities and manpower in Nigeria. Hence, this study advocates that Nigerian governments (Federal and States) should aim at achieving a testing rate of at least 0.3 per day while ensuring that all the citizens strictly comply with wearing face masks and observing social distancing in public.

Forecasting of New Cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria Using Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average Models

“…added to the acronym SIR is the exposure compartment to make it SEIR. Other authors who adopted the SIR/SEIR model include [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Artificial intelligence and machine learning approach was equally used to model and forecast cases of COVID-19.…”