The role of seasonal timing and phenological shifts for species coexistence

Abstract

Shifts in the phenologies of coexistence species are altering the temporal structure of natural communities worldwide. However, predicting how these changes affect the structure and long‐term dynamics of natural communities is challenging because phenology and coexistence theory have largely proceeded independently. Here, I propose a conceptual framework that incorporates seasonal timing of species interactions into a well‐studied competition model to examine how changes in phenologies influence long‐term dynamics of natural communities. Using this framework I demonstrate that persistence and coexistence conditions strongly depend on the difference in species’ mean phenologies and how this difference varies across years. Consequently, shifts in mean and interannual variation in relative phenologies of species can fundamentally alter the outcome of interactions and the potential for persistence and coexistence of competing species. These effects can be predicted by how per‐capita effects scale with differences in species’ phenologies. I outline how this approach can be parameterized with empirical systems and discuss how it fits within the context of current coexistence theory. Overall, this synthesis reveals that phenology of species interactions can play a crucial yet currently understudied role in driving coexistence and biodiversity patterns in natural systems and determine how species will respond to future climate change.

Timing and duration of phenological resources: Toward a mechanistic understanding of their impacts on community structure and ecosystem processes in stream food chains

“…Rather, the presented model permitted analytical approach that allowed us to describe the full picture of how the timing and duration of phenological resources affect different interacting processes to generate impacts on community structure and ecosystem processes (Figure ). A similar approach that relates the phenological overlap of interspecific competition to the strength of competition coefficient has been utilized without a temporally explicit formulation of phenological activities (Rudolf, ).…”

“…Incorporating empirical observations gained from our field experiments (Table ), we aim at generating long‐term qualitative predictions about whether phenological changes in the timing and duration of terrestrial prey inputs increase or decrease aquatic prey and litter processing, and clarifying the mechanisms and the conditions underlying these effects. Although there have been a number of mathematical models on phenological species interactions (Cushing, ; Durant et al, ; Nakazawa & Doi, ; Revilla, Encinas‐Viso, & Loreau, ; Rudolf, ), few have considered communities involving more than three species with an explicit formulation of life history stages at which phenological species interactions occur. By contrast, our model considers five interacting members of stream food chains including two life‐history stages of predators.…”

Optimal reproductive phenology under size-dependent cannibalism

“…The reproductive schedule of species has a tight connection to fitness and ontogenetic development [1], and understanding the interplay between breeding phenology and size-dependent interactions is needed to understand how organisms adapt to a changing climate [2]. Improving our ability to predict phenologies and seasonal structure of species interactions not only facilitates our view of evolutionary traits but also provides significant merit for ecosystem management, conservation, and estimations of the impact of climatic change on species [2][3][4].…”

Effects of forest management on the phenology of early-flowering understory herbs

“…The overall model is a good fit to the data: Fisher's C = 8.364, df = 410 12, P-value = 0.756. 411 Many organisms respond to anthropogenic environmental change through shifts in their 417 timing of phenological events, and these changes can have far-reaching consequences for the 418 ecology and evolution of ecological communities (Rudolf 2019). It is therefore important to 419 understand the different potential drivers of phenological changes.…”

“…On the other hand, Scheepens and Stöcklin (2013) showed 545 that earlier flowering as a response to climatic changes can also be maladaptive and lead to a 546 fitness decline due to a more rapid development and therefore lower flower numbers. species interactions and thereby influence the potential for persistence and coexistence of 555 competing species and change biodiversity patterns in natural systems (Rudolf 2019 (Forrest, 2015) and pollinator fitness (Schenk,563 Krauss, and Holzschuh, 2018). However, the likeliness of such mismatches is discussed 564 controversially.…”