The Role of Unpredictability in Maintaining Control of the Security Forces in the Gambia

Abstract

This research explores a classic predicament of authoritarian leaders—the need for a strong security force to deter opposition alongside a fear of the threats that a strong force could pose. By providing a unique view into the security services in The Gambia under President Jammeh (1994–2017), it argues that fostering uncertainty was the key tool in maintaining control of the armed forces. It situates this approach in the context of wider theories of institutional arbitrariness. The research demonstrates how unpredictability was operationalized through multiple, overlapping practices targeting both the structural level and routine aspects of military life. It also looks at international opportunities as an avenue to mitigate some of the negative effects of pervasive uncertainty in the forces. The research provides new insights into the internal dynamics of state security forces by drawing on data newly available after The Gambia’s democratic political transition of 2017. This includes interviews with members of the forces, testimonies from the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparation Commission (TRRC), court martial transcripts, and other government reports.

Divine Mandates and Political Realities: Exploring Power, Religion, and Transition in The Gambia

“…By the time that Jammeh left the country in 2016, he had significantly developed The Gambia's military. With no foreign threats to the country, this strategy is described as an effort to amplify and protect his regime (Dwyer, 2023). In flexing his militarised strength, Jammeh claimed fake honours, such as "Admiral of Nebraska," and the "President Obama Platinum Award," to glorify and elevate his status (Nyanzi, 2013).…”

“…Lastly, Jammeh constructed himself as a defender of religious values (Nyanzi, 2013). By aggressively scaling up the armed forces and developing the persona of a strong military leader (Dwyer, 2023), he manipulated the symbolism of the militarised strength of God in the Holy Quran and Bible. This symbolism was important in his aim to protect religious values over Western values.…”

“…Furthermore, Jammeh leveraged his power to appoint Jolas to influential positions in the government and various sectors (Hultin et al, 2017). According to Dwyer (2023), authoritarian leaders maintain power by relying on structural approaches that involve the recruitment of relatives and co-ethnics into powerful positions.…”

“…Often concerned with disloyalty, Jammeh leveraged The Gambia’s armed forces to attack, imprison, and kill people close to him, including members of his own cabinet, party (Perfect, 2010), armed forces (Dwyer, 2023), members of his family (Darboe, 2022a, 2022b), and fellow Jolas. One respondent stated: “Jammeh as a Jola himself went after Jolas that he perceived to be disloyal.…”

“…In moving in seemingly unpredictable, yet calculated ways, Jammeh was manipulating, and simultaneously modelling the precarious, yet unquestioned wrath of God. In a study on how authoritarian leaders use security forces to command power, Dwyer (2023) posits that uncertainty was most instrumental in controlling The Gambia’s armed forces. She claims that such strategy “involved consistently limiting the ability to predict who would be significant, what rules would be applied, and when violence would be used within the forces” (Dwyer, 2023: 149).…”