Conceptual models in biogeography guide our thought processes, leading us to interpret data in certain ways, and, at a more fundamental level, to ask (and therefore answer) only certain questions, while leaving other questions unasked. In spite of this process of 'normalization', data sometimes accumulate that do not readily fit into existing models. Resemblances to results from other studies are noted, new patterns are seen, and a new paradigm begins to emerge.Island biogeography is almost certainly currently undergoing a paradigm shift, due to just such an accumulation of new data. In this case, it is not one paradigm that is being set aside, but two, simultaneously, that have existed side-by-side for about 40 years. One of these, the equilibrium model of island biogeography (MacArthur & Wilson, 1963, 1967 emphasized island biotas as being typified by rapid turnover through on-going colonization and extinction, and implied that rates of gene flow would often be high due to frequent dispersal. The other, vicariance biogeography (e.g. Rosen, 1978;Nelson & Platnick, 1981) implicitly requires great stability of island biotas and emphasizes the process of diversification, with persistence of species over millions of years with little or no colonization/ dispersal and static biotic composition. It has been clear for many years that both models could not both be correct and complete; but for years, many studies utilized only one model or the other, despite calls for integration and synthesis (e.g. Brown, 1986Brown, , 2004Heaney, 1986Heaney, , 2000Whittaker, 1998Whittaker, , 2004Lomolino, 2000;Wiens & Donoghue, 2004).I believe that recent publications, including many in the Journal of Biogeography, show that a new paradigm is beginning to emerge. The changes in perspective are often incremental, and most of the publications focus on a single group of organisms in a single region, but they present Field Museum of Natural History, 1400 S Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL 60605, USA *Correspondence: Lawrence R. Heaney, Field Museum of Natural History, 1400 S Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL 60605, USA. E-mail: heaney@fieldmuseum.org ABSTRACT 1 Following several decades during which two dissimilar and incompatible models (equilibrium and vicariance) dominated island biogeography, recent publications have documented patterns that point the way towards a new paradigm that includes elements of both models, as well as some novel aspects. Many of these seminal contributions have been made possible by the recent development of robust, temporally calibrated phylogenies used in concert with increasingly precise and reliable geological reconstructions of oceanic regions. Although a new general model of oceanic island biogeography has not yet been proposed, in this brief overview I present six hypotheses that summarize aspects of the emerging paradigm. These hypotheses deal with: the frequency of dispersal over oceanic water barriers by terrestrial organisms; the existence of substantial variation in the amount of dispersal (and gene flow...