The Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Implications for Global and Regional Food Security and Potential Policy Responses

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine crisis on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. On the policy side, we review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.

Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Food Security: Towards More Sustainable and Resilient Food Systems?

“…In many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), governments’ capacities to maintain their social safety-net programs and continually subsidize essential food products will be tested [ 48 ]. In addition, low-income families will be particularly affected by increased food prices since they spend most of their income on food [ 49 ]. For instance, in Egypt, the government spends around $3 billion a year on wheat imports, most of which goes toward a bread subsidy program, the Tamween ration card system, covering 73% of Egyptian families [ 50 ].…”

“…For instance, in Egypt, the government spends around $3 billion a year on wheat imports, most of which goes toward a bread subsidy program, the Tamween ration card system, covering 73% of Egyptian families [ 50 ]. The recent spike in wheat prices has resulted in a significant increase in the expense of administering this program [ 49 ].…”

Egypt: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security

“…The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in general and Egypt in particular have been di rectly affected by the war unfolding in Ukraine, mainly because of high food import dependence. A regional vulnerability analysis by IFPRI shows that MENA countries such as Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen are particularly vulnerable to trade shocks induced by the Russian-Ukraine war (Abay et al 2022a). For example, Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, usually procures about 85 percent of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine, as well important supplies of other key agricultural products.…”

“…At the subsidized prices, breads together with other grain products comprised 15.5 percent of total consumption for the poor est decile of households and 11 percent for the richest decile in 2017/18 (World Bank 2022). How ever, as discussed above, wheat and bread represent a major source of calories for households, and especially for poorer households (Abay et al 2022a). IFPRI's economywide model tracks in come and expenditures for different population groups and is linked to a survey-based micro-simu lation tool that tracks the consumption patterns of individual households.…”

The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade

“…A growing literature investigates the economic consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Areas of inquiry include economic growth (Liadze et al, 2022; Mahlstein et al, 2022), stock market performance (Ahmed et al, 2022; Boungou & Yatié, 2022; Sun & Zhang, 2022), commodity markets (Fang & Shao, 2022; Ihle et al, 2022; Paulson et al, 2022), and food security (Abay et al, 2022; Behnassi & El Haiba, 2022; Carriquiry et al, 2022; Hellegers, 2022). Borin et al (2022) developed a theoretical framework to assess the economic and trade implications of the Russia–Ukraine war.…”