The second demographic transition, 1986–2020: sub-replacement fertility and rising cohabitation—a global update

Abstract

The article considers the evolution of two “Second Demographic Tradition” (SDT) core characteristics: fertility postponement and the rise of cohabitation, with particular attention being given to the first two decades of the new century. It can be considered as the sequel to the concise overview of the SDT published earlier in the US Proceedings of the National Academy (PNAS) (Lesthaeghe, 2014).In the first section, three optimistic views concerning the evolution of fertility are considered: (i) rises due to the end of postponement, (ii) rises connected with advancing human development and (iii) rises associated with advancing gender equality. The focus in this section is mainly but not exclusively on the European experience and its large degree of variation in fertility patterns. It is argued that these three optimistic predictions of sustained fertility rises are mainly based on observations prior to 2010, with too much weight being given to four Nordic countries and too little to other Western European countries with very similar fertility levels. However, these expectations have been thwarted during the second decade, even in the presence of advances in human development and/or gender equality. Hence, the original SDT prediction of 1986 of sustained sub-replacement fertility still holds after 35 years. We expect this to continue during the third decade as well. Furthermore, single-factor explanations are not likely to do justice to far more intricate situations that are responsive to varying structural and ideational influences.In the second section, the evolution of cohabitation is traced in Europe, the USA and Canada, the Latin American countries, three East Asian populations and selected sub-Saharan cases. At the onset, cohabitation can start either from a SDT basis among the better educated or among the poorer classes following a pattern of disadvantage (POD). It is argued that the feature of cohabitation spreads rapidly among all social classes and across all education groups and that in the process of increasing cohabitation, the POD versus SDT argument loses its significance. On a global scale, the rise in cohabitation is contingent on two dimensions: (i) contrasting historical patterns of kinship organisation, including the position of women, and (ii) further advances of the “ethics revolution”, indicating the growing dominance of individual autonomy over traditional societal norms. As a result, no breakthroughs in the near future are expected in countries with a Muslim or Hindu tradition in which no such major cultural shifts have occurred so far.

Premarital Pregnancy in China: Cohort Trends and Educational Gradients

“…The SDT framework posits that the primary driver of these trends is the cultural shift toward postmodern attitudes that emphasize individuality, autonomy, and self‐actualization (Zaidi and Morgan 2017). Research has shown that the SDT can spread beyond Western societies (Lesthaeghe 2010, 2020). East Asian societies, including China, have exhibited some trends associated with the SDT, such as sustained below‐replacement fertility, delayed marriage, and increased cohabitation (Raymo et al.…”

“…Education is often used as a proxy for ideational change (Perelli‐Harris and Gerber 2011). Given that better educated people tend to be more exposed to and more accepting of new norms and values, innovative family behaviors should first start among highly educated people and then spread to less educated people (Lesthaeghe 2020). Evidence for the ideational change explanation has been found in China: Delaying or forgoing marriage and engaging in premarital cohabitation are still seen as a novelty, and thus are more common among highly educated women (Qian and Qian 2014; Yu and Xie 2015).…”

“…As posited by the “diverging destinies” perspective, the SDT is leading to growing socioeconomic differentials in women's family behavior and therefore greater inequalities in children's resources (McLanahan 2004). Recent studies show that some hallmarks of the SDT, including fertility declines (to below‐replacement levels), marriage delays, and increases in premarital cohabitation, have also emerged in China (Lesthaeghe 2020; Yu and Xie 2015, 2019). However, little is known about whether the relationship between pregnancy and marriage has changed or how the trend in such relationship varies by social class.…”

“…Given that childbearing and marriage remain closely linked in China (as evidenced by the low levels of nonmarital births), increases in premarital pregnancy are thought to not only illuminate a decoupling of marriage and sexual/reproductive behavior but also serve as a key feature of family change under the SDT (Lesthaeghe 2010; Raymo and Iwasawa 2017). Research has found marked increases in premarital pregnancy in Japan (Raymo and Iwasawa 2008), but “whether China is currently joining the Japanese pattern of more pre‐marital pregnancies … still needs to be documented” (Lesthaeghe 2020, 30). Despite geographical and cultural proximity to Japan, China's fertility context is distinct: Rapid fertility declines in China occurred in a context where the one‐child policy was strictly enforced for more than three decades (Wang 2011; Qian and Jin 2018).…”

“…2015 for a review), we investigate cohort trends in premarital pregnancy among Chinese women born between 1960 and 1999. By paying attention to educational gradients in premarital pregnancy, we situate China in ongoing discussions about changing socioeconomic differentials in family behavior across the world (e.g., England, Shafer, and Wu 2012; Lesthaeghe 2020; McLanahan and Jacobsen 2015; Perelli‐Harris and Gerber 2011). We evaluate whether the “diverging destinies” perspective (McLanahan 2004) is applicable to a unique non‐Western context by examining differences in the association between education and the likelihood of premarital pregnancy across successive cohorts of Chinese women.…”