The SEIR model incorporating asymptomatic cases, behavioral measures, and lockdowns: Lesson learned from the COVID-19 flow in Sweden

Khairulbahri, Muhamad

doi:10.1016/j.bspc.2022.104416

Cited by 12 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…More often than not, general behavioral changes or measures are underevaluated and their consideration in the epidemiological models is limited [21]. In an SEIR model suggested by Khairulbahri, they reported a reduction in infected cases of about 22%, by studying behavioral measures effect, which was consistent with the findings of our study [22]. A reduction in the incidence of Covid-19 associated with physical distancing (75%, CI: (59%, 95%)) was reported in a meta-analysis by Talic et al, which is in line with the results of our study [24].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the spread of infectious disease during the Covid-19 outbreak in Germany: Application of a hierarchical Bayesian Approach

Khazaei,

Küchenhoff,

Hoffmann

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) are community mitigation strategies, aimed at reducing the spread of illnesses like the coronavirus pandemic, without relying on pharmaceutical drug treatments. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of different NPIs across sixteen states of Germany, for a time period of 21 months of the pandemic. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical approach that combines different sub-models and merges information from complementary sources, to estimate the true and unknown number of infections. In this framework, we used data on reported cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit occupancy, and deaths to estimate the effect of NPIs.The list of NPIs includes: “contact restriction (up to 5 people)”, “strict contact restriction”, “curfew”, “events permitted up to 100 people”, “mask requirement in shopping malls”, “restaurant closure”, “restaurants permitted only with test”, “school closure” and “general behavioral changes”. Results: We found a considerable reduction in the instantaneous reproduction number by “general behavioral changes”, “strict contact restriction”, “restaurants permitted only with test”, “contact restriction (up to 5 people)”, “restaurant closure” and “curfew”. No association with school closures could be found. Conclusions: This study suggests that some public health measures, including general behavioral changes, strict contact restrictions, and restaurants permitted only with tests are associated with containing the Covid-19 pandemic. Future research is needed to better understand the effectiveness of NPIs in the context of Covid-19 vaccination.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the spread of infectious disease during the Covid-19 outbreak in Germany: Application of a hierarchical Bayesian Approach

Khazaei,

Küchenhoff,

Hoffmann

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…They also develop a method to assess alternative plans to relax public health restrictions when vaccine coverage is high in regions that have implemented an elimination strategy. Khairulbahri [103] suggests a SEIR model capturing the roles of behavioral measures, partial lockdowns, hospital preparedness and asymptomatic cases in Sweden. The suggested SEIR model successfully reproduces main observed outputs and finds that the effects of partial lockdowns effectively start more than 50 days after the first confirmed case.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

Coccia

2023

AIMSPH

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<abstract> <p>Scholars and experts argue that future pandemics and/or epidemics are inevitable events, and the problem is not whether they will occur, but when a new health emergency will emerge. In this uncertain scenario, one of the most important questions is an accurate prevention, preparedness and prediction for the next pandemic. The main goal of this study is twofold: first, the clarification of sources and factors that may trigger pandemic threats; second, the examination of prediction models of on-going pandemics, showing pros and cons. Results, based on in-depth systematic review, show the vital role of environmental factors in the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and many limitations of the epidemiologic models of prediction because of the complex interactions between the new viral agent SARS-CoV-2, environment and society that have generated variants and sub-variants with rapid transmission. The insights here are, whenever possible, to clarify these aspects associated with public health in order to provide lessons learned of health policy that may reduce risks of emergence and diffusion of new pandemics having negative societal impact.</p> </abstract>

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“…First, an additional compartment A (i.e. asymptomatic when screening) was introduced into the traditional SEIR model, consistent with previous studies [ 23 – 25 ]. Asymptomatic individuals accounted for over half of COVID-19 transmissions, including 35% from pre-symptomatic persons [ 26 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…The third stage (16)(17)(18)(19)(20)(21)(22)(23)(24)(25)(26)(27)(28)(29)(30)(31) On 16 December, the first batch of 5,025 sets of centralized isolation houses in Shaoxing was built, followed by the largest temporary quarantine site with 600 beds in Shangyu put into use on 17 December. During this stage, Shangyu conducted another four consecutive mass NAATs.…”

Section: Interventions In Shaoxingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of phase-adjusted interventions for COVID-19 using an improved SEIR model

Jiang,

Gu,

Liu

et al. 2023

Epidemiol. Infect.

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A local COVID-19 outbreak with two community clusters occurred in a large industrial city, Shaoxing, China, in December 2021 after serial interventions were imposed. We aimed to understand the reason by analysing the characteristics of the outbreak and evaluating the effects of phase-adjusted interventions. Publicly available data from 7 December 2021 to 25 January 2022 were collected to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of this outbreak. The incubation period was estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. A well-fitted extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was used to simulate the impact of different interventions under various combination of scenarios. There were 387 SARS-CoV-2-infected cases identified, and 8.3% of them were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic cases. The estimated incubation period was 5.4 (95% CI 5.2–5.7) days for all patients. Strengthened measures of comprehensive quarantine based on tracing led to less infections and a shorter duration of epidemic. With a same period of incubation, comprehensive quarantine was more effective in containing the transmission than other interventions. Our findings reveal an important role of tracing and comprehensive quarantine in blocking community spread when a cluster occurred. Regions with tense resources can adopt home quarantine as a relatively affordable and low-impact intervention measure compared with centralized quarantine.

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The SEIR model incorporating asymptomatic cases, behavioral measures, and lockdowns: Lesson learned from the COVID-19 flow in Sweden

Cited by 12 publications

References 28 publications

Association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the spread of infectious disease during the Covid-19 outbreak in Germany: Application of a hierarchical Bayesian Approach

Association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the spread of infectious disease during the Covid-19 outbreak in Germany: Application of a hierarchical Bayesian Approach

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

Evaluation of phase-adjusted interventions for COVID-19 using an improved SEIR model

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