The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain

Boßmann, Tobias; Staffell, Iain

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2015.06.082

Cited by 205 publications

(104 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…A similar approach was taken by Munuera and Hawkes [10], who estimated that a 33GW increase in peak demand could occur if half of UK dwellings use heat pumps. More recently, Boßmann and Staffell [11] analysed the contribution of different demands to future peak load, concluding that a million extra heat pumps could add 1.5GW to peak demand. These top-down approaches offer a good level of confidence for results relating to similar conditions but are unable to capture the full effect of more fundamental changes in the way that the heat pumps operate.…”

Section: Existing Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detailed simulation of electrical demands due to nationwide adoption of heat pumps, taking account of renewable generation and mitigation

Cooper¹,

Hammond

McManus

et al. 2016

IET Renewable Power Generation

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This study quantifies the increase in the peak power demand, net of non-dispatchable generation, that may be required by widespread adoption of heat pumps. Electrification of heating could reduce emissions but also cause a challenging increase in peak power demand. This paper expands on previous studies by quantifying the increase in greater detail; considering a wider range of scenarios, the characteristics of heat pumps and the interaction between wind generation and demand side management. A model was developed with dynamic simulations of individual heat pumps and dwellings.The increase in peak net-demand is highly sensitive to assumptions regarding the heat pumps, their installation, building fabric and the characteristics of the grid. If 80% of dwellings in the UK use heat pumps, peak net-demand could increase by around 100% (54GW) but this increase could be mitigated to 30% (16GW) by favourable conditions. Demand side management could reduce this increase to 20%, or 15% if used with extensive thermal storage. If 60% of dwellings use heat pumps, the increase in peak net-demand could be as low as 5.5GW.High-performance heat pumps, appropriate installation and better insulated dwellings could make the increase in peak net-demand due to the electrification of heating more manageable. Highlights Widespread (80% of dwellings) use of heat pumps could increase UK peak net electrical demand by 100%. A combination of measures could reduce this peak increase to approximately 30%. Demand side management has potential to further reduce the peak increase to 20%. Extensive thermal storage could further reduce the peak increase to 15%. The increase in peak net-demand due to 60% of dwellings using ASHPs could be as low as 5.5GW.

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Section: Existing Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detailed simulation of electrical demands due to nationwide adoption of heat pumps, taking account of renewable generation and mitigation

Cooper¹,

Hammond

McManus

et al. 2016

IET Renewable Power Generation

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show abstract

“…[22,23], where wind velocity and solar irradiation data from the private weather service provider WEPROG (Böblingen, Germany) [47] [48,49] has not been considered. The average loads L n are illustrated in Figure 1.…”

Section: Modelling Of a Simplified Highly Renewable European Electricmentioning

confidence: 99%

Principal Mismatch Patterns Across a Simplified Highly Renewable European Electricity Network

et al. 2017

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Due to its spatio-temporal variability, the mismatch between the weather and demand patterns challenges the design of highly renewable energy systems. A principal component analysis is applied to a simplified networked European electricity system with a high share of wind and solar power generation. It reveals a small number of important mismatch patterns, which explain most of the system's required backup and transmission infrastructure. Whereas the first principal component is already able to reproduce most of the temporal mismatch variability for a solar dominated system, a few more principal components are needed for a wind dominated system. Due to its monopole structure the first principal component causes most of the system's backup infrastructure. The next few principal components have a dipole structure and dominate the transmission infrastructure of the renewable electricity network.

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“…An important area that lacks attention is the potentially substantial change to the shape of future demand. Modelling future demand is a significant problem in itself: many studies which project future power demand neglect the possible changes to consumption patterns and simply scale existing profiles [41]. Past work has either projected future demand from single sectors or consumers [42e44], or has been limited to predicting individual features such as load duration curves [45,46] or peak load [16,47].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand

Staffell

Pfenninger

2018

Energy

254

109

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a b s t r a c tWind and solar power have experienced rapid cost declines and are being deployed at scale. However, their output variability remains a key problem for managing electricity systems, and the implications of multi-day to multi-year variability are still poorly understood. As other energy-using sectors are electrified, the shape and variability of electricity demand will also change. We develop an open framework for quantifying the impacts of weather on electricity supply and demand using the Renewables.ninja and DESSTINEE models. We demonstrate this using a case study of Britain using National Grid's Two Degrees scenario forwards to 2030.We find the British electricity system is rapidly moving into unprecedented territory, with peak demand rising above 70 GW due to electric heating, and intermittent renewable output exceeding demand as early as 2021. Hourly ramp-rates widen by 50% and year-to-year variability increases by 80%, showing why future power system studies must consider multiple years of data, and the influence of weather on both supply and demand. Our framework is globally applicable, and allows detailed scenarios of hourly electricity supply and demand to be explored using only limited input data such as annual quantities from government scenarios or broader energy systems models.

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The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain

Cited by 205 publications

References 30 publications

Detailed simulation of electrical demands due to nationwide adoption of heat pumps, taking account of renewable generation and mitigation

Detailed simulation of electrical demands due to nationwide adoption of heat pumps, taking account of renewable generation and mitigation

Principal Mismatch Patterns Across a Simplified Highly Renewable European Electricity Network

The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand

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