The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Attending the Schools that Parents Prefer

Abstract

Using meta-analysis we find that, on average, sought-after schools do not improve student test scores. A potential explanation for this result is that parents value schools that improve outcomes not well-measured by test scores. We explore this notion using both administrative and survey data from Barbados. Using a regression discontinuity design, preferred schools have better peers but do not improve short-run test scores. Consistent with the proposed explanation, the same students at the same schools have more post-secondary school completion and improved adult well-being (based on an index of educational attainment, occupational rank, earnings, and health). These long-run benefits are larger for females who also experience reduced teen motherhood. Mechanisms are explored.

The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy

“… See Lochner (2011) for a more detailed review of the literature on the link between schooling and crime 8. Oreopoulos and Salvanes (2011) reproduce these results using an expanded sample and a slightly altered specification 9.…”

“…They find that an extra year of completed schooling reduces incarceration rates for males ages 20-60. 8 Similarly, Machin et al (2011) exploit a 1972-73 increase in the minimum schooling age in England and Wales.…”

Heterogeneous effects of missing out on a place at a preferred secondary school in England

“…Indeed, choosing a school based on considerations other than test scores can be a rational choice, which might show up in a wider set of outcomes, such as well-being and mental health, and longer-term outcomes. For instance, Beuermann and Jackson (2020) provide compelling evidence that while attending preferred school in Barbados does not improve short-run test scores, it does reduce early pregnancy and enhance employment rates among women.…”

“…The evidence to date on whether parents choose schools based on causal improvements in test scores, rather than peer mix, pedagogy or other school attributes, is mixed (Gibbons and Silva, 2011;Burgess et al, 2014;Abdulkadiroglu et al, 2017b). The evidence on effects of attending a preferred school is also mixed, although the majority of studies document little or no effect of attending a preferred school on short-run test scores (Cullen et al, 2006;Dobbie and Fryer, 2014;Deming et al, 2014;Abdulkadiroglu et al, 2014Abdulkadiroglu et al, , 2017aBeuermann and Jackson, 2020). These studies are often based on data from specific cities (for example, Boston or New York), and specific settings, such as academically "elite" schools.…”

“…For instance, Ovidi (2019) studies the causal effects of missing out on preferred primary schools in London, and does not detect achievement losses from missing out on a firstchoice school at ages 6 to 7 years-aside from small detrimental effects on writing skills among affluent children. However, parents may choose schools based on other dimensions, the effects of which may not be revealed until later in life (Beuermann and Jackson, 2020). Hence in addition to short-run academic achievements, we consider longer run and broader outcomes, including mental health, fertility, and income in early adulthood.…”