Objective
We aimed to assess dimensional symptomatic predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorder in youth at familial risk of bipolar disorder (“at-risk” youth).
Method
Offspring aged 6–18 of parents with bipolar-I/II disorder (n=391) and offspring of community controls (n=248) were recruited without regard to non-bipolar psychopathology. At baseline, 8.4% (33/391) of offspring of bipolar parents had bipolar spectrum; 14.7% (44/299) of offspring with follow-up developed new-onset bipolar spectrum (15 with bipolar-I/II) over eight years. Scales collected at baseline and follow-up were reduced using factor analyses; factors (both at baseline and visit proximal to conversion or last contact) were then assessed as predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum.
Results
Relative to community control offspring, at-risk and bipolar offspring had higher baseline levels of anxiety/depression, inattention/disinhibition, externalizing, subsydromal manic, and affective lability symptoms (p<.05). The strongest predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum were: baseline anxiety/depression, baseline and proximal affective lability, and proximal subsyndromal manic symptoms (p<.05). While affective lability and anxiety/depression were elevated throughout follow-up in those who later developed bipolar spectrum, manic symptoms increased up to the point of conversion. A path analysis supported the hypothesized model that affective lability at baseline predicted new-onset bipolar spectrum, in part, through increased manic symptoms at the visit prior to conversion; earlier parental age of mood disorder onset also significantly increased risk of conversion (p<.001). While youth without anxiety/depression, affective lability, and mania (and with a parent with older age of mood disorder onset) had a 2% predicted chance of conversion to bipolar spectrum, those with all risk factors had a 49% predicted chance of conversion.
Conclusions
Dimensional measures of anxiety/depression, affective lability, and mania are important predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum in this population of at-risk youth. These symptoms emerged from among numerous other candidates, underscoring the potential clinical and research utility of these findings.