A smooth shaft production process is important to ensure the safe and efficient development of mineral resources. Due to the influence of ore rock and the mismatch between rock size and ore pass design, an arching phenomenon occurs frequently during actual ore pass release, stagnating production. Therefore, an ore pass release simulator with a freely variable ore pass angle and height is designed and used to conduct a four-factor, five-level orthogonal ore pass release experiment. An analysis is performed to determine the influence of four factors—ore particle size, ore moisture, ore pass inclination and slip height—on the probability of ore pass arching; from there, an ore pass arching probability equation is constructed and the characteristics of the ore pass arching location are clarified, effectively predicting the probability of ore pass arching and providing an effective basis for handling arching events within an applicable range. This analysis effectively predicts the probability of ore pass arch within the applicable range, and provides an effective basis for handling ore pass arch events.