The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of a Weak Recovery?

Aslam, Aqib; Boz, Emine; Cerutti, Eugenio; Furceri, Davide; Topalova, Petia

doi:10.1057/s41308-018-0063-7

Cited by 16 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…This implies that trade openness in Sub-Saharan Africa declined from 69 percent of GDP in 2008 to 51 percent of GDP in 2017. The sharp deceleration of trade was attributed to the sluggish recovery of high-income countries (which account for two-thirds of global imports), shifts in the structure of value chains with lower crossborder trade in intermediate goods, and a slowdown in global investment (World Bank 2015, Aslam et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade Integration, Export Patterns, and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Calderón¹,

Canales²,

Zeufack³

2020

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade Integration, Export Patterns, and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Calderón¹,

Canales²,

Zeufack³

2020

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“…With fragmentation incorporated, our decomposition exactly matches the actual trade data and there is no residual left as in BJY. It is also useful to note that our procedure of relating imports to final demand categories is a logical extension of the innovation in the estimation of import demand models introduced by Bussière et al ( 2013 ) and used extensively in Aslam et al ( 2018 ). In the standard setup of these demand models, imports by a country are related to this country’s GDP.…”

Section: A New Accounting Framework For the Global Trade Elasticitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A large literature has tried to explain the decline in trade elasticity. Aslam et al ( 2018 ) provide estimations of import demand functions (in the vein of Bussière et al 2013 ) and simulations in a multi-country general equilibrium model (in the vein of Eaton et al 2016 ). Their findings suggest an important role for asymmetric demand shocks, in particular as spending on investment goods declined in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008–2009.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Supply Chain Fragmentation and the Global Trade Elasticity: A New Accounting Framework

et al. 2021

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In this paper, we offer a new framework to measure cross-border supply chain fragmentation and its impact on the global trade elasticity. Firstly, we introduce the supply chain fragmentation ratio that sums the volume of imports by all countries that participate in a particular supply chain. We find that supply chain fragmentation slowed down after 2010 for most goods, but not for services. We demonstrate the importance of using trade and production data at constant prices in measuring fragmentation trends. Secondly, we quantify the impact of fragmentation on the elasticity of trade to world GDP, extending the framework of Bems et al. (Am Econ Rev Pap Proc 101(3):308–312, 2011). We account for trade effects from fragmentation within supply chains as well as asymmetric shocks to final demand. We find that the declining pace of fragmentation accounted for more than a third of the decline in the global trade elasticity after 2010. Supplementary information The online version of this article (10.1057/s41308-021-00134-8)

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“…Studies using IIO-based measures show that GVCs expanded in the 2000s before either plateauing or decreasing in more recent years (Aslam et al, 2017;Timmer et al, 2016;Haugh et al, 2016, Los et al, 2015. For instance, Timmer and co-authors (2016, p. 30) created an indicator of the Global Import Intensity (GII) of production which "measures the imports needed in any stage of production".…”

Section: Gvcs Inter-country Input Output Indicators and Intermediate mentioning

confidence: 99%

Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components

Gaulier

Sztulman

Ünal

2020

International Economics

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Over the period 2000-2016, the share of intermediate goods in world trade in nominal terms is fairly well correlated to various Global Value Chain (GVC) indicators based on international input-output matrices: a moderate expansion of international fragmentation followed by a decline from 2011 onwards. However, taking into account price effects (using an original deflator by production stages based on very detailed and harmonised bilateral trade unit-values), our results show a different evolution: the intermediate trade share in volume is growing at a subdued rate between 2000 and 2016. Focusing on the manufacture of Parts and Components (P&C), which corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs than other intermediate goods, that is, semi-finished products, the same pattern emerges, namely a slight increase in the share of P&C in manufacturing world trade in volume. Furthermore, after controlling for the global business cycle, there is a modest but steady rise, with no sign of a downturn after the Great Recession. GVCs are particularly well-developed for electronics, the share of this sector in P&C trade being the highest and remaining stable over the period. However, subsectors exhibit contrasting development: P&C trade related to office machinery and computers receded while trade in telecommunications equipment, the flagship IT revolution industry, thrived. Counts of clients or suppliers by stages of production indicate a higher and growing geographical diversity for P&C.

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The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of a Weak Recovery?

Cited by 16 publications

References 20 publications

Trade Integration, Export Patterns, and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Trade Integration, Export Patterns, and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Supply Chain Fragmentation and the Global Trade Elasticity: A New Accounting Framework

Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components

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